158
FXUS61 KPBZ 190009
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
709 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN TUCKER; 8AM MONDAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. UPDATED KEY MESSAGES/AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOLLOWED BY SNOW SQUALLS MID-
AFTERNOON
2) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
3) WIND ADVISORY EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
4) IMPACTS FROM EXTENDED COLD TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SNOW SQUALLS MID-AFTERNOON
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND COULD CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE; A TENTH TO HALF INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7AM.
AFTER SUNRISE, HI-RES MODELS INDICATE 40 J/KG TO 100 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 10AM AND 4PM. THAT
SAID, THERE STANDS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW (SQUALLS/SNOW BANDS) THAT
WOULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. MODELS ARE FAVORING AREAS NORTH
OF I-70 FOR SNOW BANDS/SQUALLS, WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCENDING OUT OF CANADA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING HAVE AN 80-100% CHANCE OF BEING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA AT A 75% CHANCE OF SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS, BELOW-
ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING,
RANGING FROM -5F TO -20F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIND ADVISORY EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (+80%) FOR EASTERN TUCKER THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 46MPH MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
A STRONG GRADIENT WIND. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
50-60MPH IN THE CANAAN VALLEY. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 4...IMPACTS FROM EXTENDED COLD TEMPERATURES
LONG-RANGE MODELS PREDICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD, STARTING
SUNDAY (JAN.25TH) AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAY REMAIN IN THE MID-TEENS FOR
OVER 48 HOURS. THE SEVERITY OF THIS DEEP FREEZE RAISES CONCERNS
ABOUT INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY FROZEN PIPES, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID ACCRUAL OF ICE ON RIVERS ACROSS THE
REGION AND IMPACT MARINE TRAFFIC.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR THIS EVENING
2) RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURN OVERNIGHT
3) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE MONDAY
3) GUSTY WIND ON MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
WITH THE EXIT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOW WRAPPED UP. A LAYER OF STRATOCU
HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE OF 3 KFT IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE FOR ALL
SITES SAVE ZZV, AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE UNTIL A NEW VFR MID-
LEVEL DECK WORKS NOT LONG AFTER 00Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE.
WITH THAT WAVE WILL COME ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RESTRICTIONS BACK MVFR TO IFR. LATEST CAMS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE SNOW,
SO HAVE STILL KEPT PREVAILING MENTION FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT BUT EASED UP ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SLIGHTLY BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. SNOW SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE HIGH PROBABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED SUCH THAT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND PERIODIC WITHIN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS. FOR THAT
REASON, HAVE KEPT VFR VISIBILITY PREVAILING BUT INTRODUCED
PROB30S DOWN TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY AFTER FROPA WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. EXPECT WSW GUSTS TO 30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WSW WIND ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING IN COLD WRLY FLOW. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW AND
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-073-074-076>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ001-002-510>514.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/MLB
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