703
FXUS61 KPBZ 190838
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WILL WANE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
3) WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV.
4) EXTENDED COLD LATE WEEK AND NEXT MAY IMPACT REGIONAL
INFRASTRUCTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, GENERALLY WANING IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE.
GIVEN COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW COULD QUICKLY COAT
UNTREATED SURFACES AND CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS
OF POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD POSE BRIEFLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO
TRAVEL. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY 50 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS
MAXIMIZED AT 18Z (1PM) NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. IF THESE BURSTS DO
MATERIALIZE, SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH/HOUR MAY BE
REALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS TODAY, USHERING IN A STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA LIKELY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NEAR SUNSET. SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE, AND AREAS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR HAVE A 40-80%
CHANCE OF SEEING BELOW-ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OVERLAP WITH A STILL-TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING; A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV (WHERE
A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING). WIND
CHILLS THERE WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO; AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
GRADUAL WARM-UP TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING
DAYTIME WIND SPEED, MEANING MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT BREAK OUT
OF NEGATIVE WIND CHILL TERRITORY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY, WV.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH (+80%) FOR EXCEEDING 46MPH GUSTS IN
EASTERN TUCKER AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 50-60MPH IN CANAAN VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 4... EXTENDED COLD LATE WEEK AND NEXT MAY IMPACT
REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD,
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID-TEENS OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS IS
KNOWN TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO INFRASTRUCTURE,
PARTICULARLY FROZEN PIPES, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID
FORMATION OF ICE ON RIVERS.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURN TODAY
2) IFR VIS MOST LIKELY LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON
3) GUSTY WEST WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
------------------------------------------------------------
A CROSSING FRONT LATE THIS MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN AREAS/PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW, RESULTING
IN RESTRICTIONS AT REGIONAL PORTS. REFS AND NBM DATA SHOW
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS, WHILE THE HREF IS WAY
MORE BULLISH AT 50-60% FOR IFR CIGS. IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY (CENTERED ON A 15Z-20Z TIMEFRAME) AS THE
REFS/HREF/NBM ALL ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A 50-70% CHANCE OF IFR
VIS, LARGELY NORTH OF KPIT. THIS COINCIDES WITH BOTH THE REFS
AND HREF SHOWING 95TH PERCENTILE HOURLY RATES OF 0.3-0.4" /HR,
WHILE THE NBM IS SMOOTHED OUT AT NEAR 0.1" /HR. ANY AREAS/BANDS
OF MORE INTENSE SNOW LATE MORNING THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON
DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO IFR OR LOWER SHOULD BE KBVI AND NORTH,
IMPACTING KFKL AND KDUJ AS WELL. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.
USED PROB30S ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME PERIOD GIVEN VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND PERIODIC WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS.
WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW
AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR WVZ514.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...88
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