883
FXUS61 KPBZ 192050
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
350 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SNOW SQUALL THREAT IS OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS REMOVED
FROM THE KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV.
3) SNOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FROM A PASSING
TROUGH.
4) EXTENDED COLD LATE WEEK AND NEXT MAY IMPACT REGIONAL
INFRASTRUCTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA LIKELY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS NEAR SUNSET. SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE, AND AREAS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR HAVE A 70-90%
CHANCE OF SEEING BELOW- ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OVERLAP WITH A STILL-TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING; A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV (WHERE
A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING). WIND
CHILLS THERE WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO; AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
GRADUAL WARM-UP TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING
DAYTIME WIND SPEED, MEANING MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT BREAK OUT
OF NEGATIVE WIND CHILL TERRITORY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY, WV.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH (+80%) FOR EXCEEDING 46MPH GUSTS IN
EASTERN TUCKER AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 50-60MPH IN CANAAN VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SNOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FROM A PASSING TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIT OF WARM AIR
WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF I-76 WILL SEE A POTENTIAL 1 TO 3
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
IN FACT, IN THESE AREAS, THERE IS A 80% PROB OF GREATER THAN AN
INCH AND A 60% PROB GREATER THAN 2 INCHES CONFINED TO FOREST AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES. THUS, THE MID WEEK PERIOD COULD BE ONE TO
WATCH AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 4... EXTENDED COLD LATE WEEK AND NEXT MAY IMPACT
REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD,
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID-TEENS OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS IS
KNOWN TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO INFRASTRUCTURE,
PARTICULARLY FROZEN PIPES, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID
FORMATION OF ICE ON RIVERS.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON
2) GUSTY WEST WINDS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
3.) VFR RETURNING SOUTH OF FKL-DUJ TONIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A COLD FRONT. LIFR VSBY AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH THESE SQUALLS. THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W-E
AFTER FROPA THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
VFR SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR FKL AND DUJ, WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. VFR IS
EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS FOR MOST AIRPORTS ON TUESDAY,
THROUGH FKL AND DUJ WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE UNDER
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
W TO WSW WIND WILL INCREASE AFTER FROPA THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-20KT, AND GUSTS 30-35KT, WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MIXING. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, THOUGH STILL WILL REMAIN
GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT. CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ514.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM
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