777
FXUS61 KPBZ 192313
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SNOW SQUALL THREAT IS OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS REMOVED
FROM THE KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV.
3) SNOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FROM A PASSING
TROUGH.
4) EXTENDED COLD LATE WEEK AND NEXT MAY IMPACT REGIONAL
INFRASTRUCTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA LIKELY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS NEAR SUNSET. SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE, AND AREAS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR HAVE A 70-90%
CHANCE OF SEEING BELOW- ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OVERLAP WITH A STILL-TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING; A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV (WHERE
A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING). WIND
CHILLS THERE WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO; AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
GRADUAL WARM-UP TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASING
DAYTIME WIND SPEED, MEANING MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT BREAK OUT
OF NEGATIVE WIND CHILL TERRITORY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY, WV.
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH (+80%) FOR EXCEEDING 46MPH GUSTS IN
EASTERN TUCKER AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 50-60MPH IN CANAAN VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SNOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FROM A PASSING TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIT OF WARM AIR
WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF I-76 WILL SEE A POTENTIAL 1 TO 3
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
IN FACT, IN THESE AREAS, THERE IS A 80% PROB OF GREATER THAN AN
INCH AND A 60% PROB GREATER THAN 2 INCHES CONFINED TO FOREST AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES. THUS, THE MID WEEK PERIOD COULD BE ONE TO
WATCH AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 4... EXTENDED COLD LATE WEEK AND NEXT MAY IMPACT
REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD,
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID-TEENS OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS IS
KNOWN TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO INFRASTRUCTURE,
PARTICULARLY FROZEN PIPES, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID
FORMATION OF ICE ON RIVERS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) GUSTY WEST WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT
2) VFR FOR ALL BUT FKL/DUJ TONIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH
TUESDAY
3) GUSTS RELAX SOME TUESDAY BUT STILL UP TO 20 KNOTS
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
EXCEPTION IS FOR FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU HAS BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ADVERTISED DESPITE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WITH CEILINGS ONLY IMPACTING LBE/FKL/DUJ AND A
FEW/SCT MID-LEVEL DECK ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE THEME
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF THICKENING DECKS IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 08Z. WESTERLY WIND REMAINS STOUT OVERNIGHT BUT A BIT LESS
THAN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
VFR IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS FOR MOST AIRPORTS ON
TUESDAY, THROUGH FKL AND DUJ WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE
UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND BETTER MOISTURE WITH LAKE
PROXIMITY. GUSTS WILL HOLD OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW AND BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>513.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ514.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/MLB
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