159
FXUS61 KPBZ 281149
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
649 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- THE EXTREME COLD WARNING NOW CONTINUES THROUGH 11AM THURSDAY
FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 7PM TONIGHT TO 11AM THURSDAY.
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
2) LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK (20F TO 30F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES). AS A
REMINDER, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 11AM WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F TO -20F THIS
MORNING. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY NOW
EXTENDS THROUGH 11AM THURSDAY WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25F
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNING. A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS -5F TO -15F THURSDAY MORNING (GENERALLY 40% TO 80%
CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -10F).
THIS COLD WILL CHALLENGE MANY AREA RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION). THIS MAY BE ONE OF 10 TIMES IN PITTSBURGH HISTORY
WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMP WAS RECORDED AT 15F OR LOWER FOR 8
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. ANALOGS FOR SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN 1994,
2015, AND 2018 SHOWED WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. THE
COLD WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT IS NOT PLOWED OR SHOVELED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND FROZEN THROUGH THE WEEK, MAKING TRAVEL
DIFFICULT ON BACK- ROADS. RAPID ICE GROWTH ON AREA RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING AND ICE
JAMS AS THE AREA HEADS INTO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A DIGGING
EASTERN TROUGH INVOKES CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHAT
WE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN OF IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW TIED TO
THE TIMING OF (OR IF) THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF FROM THE FLOW.
THE SNOWIEST SCENARIO IS ONE IN WHICH THE LOW CLOSES EARLY IS
DEEPER. THERE IS REALLY ONLY ONE CLUSTER REPRESENTING 25% OF
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT THAT ALLOWS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. SHOULD
IT OCCUR, PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA (60% CHANCE OF >1", 30% CHANCE OF >3",
10% CHANCE OF >6"). 75% OF GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW CLOSING TOO
LATE (AND TOO EAST) OR NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUGGEST MUCH APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY STRATUS
2) MVFR CIGS BUILD IN AREAWIDE LATE THIS MORNING WITH FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING
3) RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
LINGERING STRATUS IS WORKING ITS WAY ALONG THE RIDGES THIS
MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO DUJ/LBE WHILE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE. BY MID-MORNING, CIGS WILL FILL IN AREAWIDE WITH A
70-80% PROBABILITY FOR MVFR AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH
AND THE MOISTURE DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. WITH MOISTURE SATURATING THE
DGZ, WHICH IS NEARLY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GROUND, AND WEAK
LIFT IN THIS LAYER, WILL LIKELY SEE FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DON'T EXPECT THAT
THESE WILL BRING MUCH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION, SAVE FKL/DUJ
WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE MAY BRING PERIODIC MVFR
REDUCTIONS. WIND WILL HOLD BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE, MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ON OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRAPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FKL/DUJ
FEATURE AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF IFR OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY
HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS. AGAIN, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE, SATURATED PROFILE
THROUGH THE DGZ. WIND WILL RELAX A BIT TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
AREAWIDE.
OUTLOOK...
PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SNOW, ANOTHER LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LULL ON
FRIDAY, AND PERIODIC CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN FRIDAY 1/30:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 10F (1977)
DUBOIS, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -10F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1934)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -4F (2019)
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN SATURDAY 1/31:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
MORGANTOWN, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1965)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1948)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -6F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 11F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1955)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...MLB
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