273
FXUS61 KPBZ 290611
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 7P
THURSDAY TO 11AM FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY RUNS FROM
11AM THURSDAY TO 11AM FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20 POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
- CHANCES OF ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM A COASTAL LOW
DECREASE TO <5% AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. EASTERN TUCKER AS A
75% CHANCE OF NO SNOW, AND ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF 3 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD THIS WEEK; WARMER, BUT BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
2) LOW, BUT NON-ZERO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (COLD WEATHER WARNING FOR EASTERN
TUCKER) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11AM THIS MORNING. WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING FORECAST NEAR-ZERO WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOR THE HILLTOPS, WIND CHILLS ARE MOST FAVORED TO DROP AS LOW
AS 15 BELOW ZERO FOR THE HILLTOPS, 20 BELOW ZERO FOR THE RIDGES,
AND 25 BELOW ZERO FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. MORE INSULATED AND
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY BOTTOM OUT WITH COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES
(AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO LOCALLY), BUT SHOULD REMAIN SHELTERED
FROM THE WIND AND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, ALTHOUGH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEING MOST ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA OF
10/15 BELOW ZERO, SAVE EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
BECAUSE GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, A NEW COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT 11AM WHEN THE EXTREME COLD WARNING
EXPIRES AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO MOST LIKELY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA,
WINDS ARE ACTUALLY MOST LIKELY TO DECOUPLE AND CALM OVERNIGHT
UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS. COMBINED WITH A 60% TO 80%
CHANCE OF CLEAR SKIES, A SNOWPACK, AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -20C,
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A PRONOUNCED
RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT. GRIDDED FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM 2 TO
12 BELOW ZERO, THROUGH MANY SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL SEE COLDER.
IT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE AT LEAST A PORTION
OF EACH COUNTY SEES A LOCALIZED LOW TEMPERATURE OF 10 TO 15
BELOW, SO THE ADVISORY TARGETED WHERE COVERAGE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY, BASED ON SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON DAYTIME
FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD WILL CHALLENGE MANY AREA RECORDS (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION). THIS MAY BE ONE OF 10 TIMES IN PITTSBURGH
HISTORY WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMP WAS RECORDED AT 15F OR LOWER FOR
8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. ANALOGS FOR SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN 1994,
2015, AND 2018 SHOWED WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. THE
COLD WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT IS NOT PLOWED OR SHOVELED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND FROZEN THROUGH THE WEEK, MAKING TRAVEL
DIFFICULT ON BACK-ROADS.
EVEN AFTER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY'S "WARMING TREND", THERE IS STILL
A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT AREA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE WITH A 75% CHANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING
EACH DAY THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY WITH "MOST LIKELY"
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. RAPID ICE GROWTH ON AREA RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE. THIS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING AND ICE
JAMS AS THE AREA HEADS INTO FEBRUARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW CHANCES OF FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, LIKELY MAXIMIZING EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS BECAUSE OF
INCREDIBLY EFFICIENT BURGERON-FENDISEN PROCESSES IN MIXED PHASE
CLOUDS, MAKING IT VERY EASY FOR ANY CLOUD TO PRODUCE ICE
CRYSTALS. EACH AFTERNOON, THIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION, AND THE FACT THAT THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL PEAK INTO THE DGZ WITH WARMING. CHANCES
MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS MID LEVEL PVA ENCOURAGES BROAD ASCENT. AND SNOW WILL REMAIN
LOW-TO-NO IMPACT. CHANCES OF A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTING
OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND HAVE DECREASED TO <10%.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER UPPER TROUGHING.
------------------------------------------------------------
EXPECT SOME TERMINALS TO REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE SPORADIC THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEVERAL
TERMINALS MAINTAINING A MVFR CIG BUT SOME VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. A FEW INSTANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THE FKL AND DUJ TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
LARGELY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SNOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN FRIDAY 1/30:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 10F (1977)
DUBOIS, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -10F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1934)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -4F (2019)
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN SATURDAY 1/31:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
MORGANTOWN, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1965)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1948)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -6F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 11F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1955)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ009-013>016-020>022-029-073-074-076>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-049-050.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ001-002-512.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/88
CLIMATE...MILCAREK
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