573
FXUS61 KPBZ 291756
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
- CHANCES OF ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM A COASTAL LOW ARE
NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS POINT. EASTERN TUCKER HAS AN 80-85% CHANCE
OF NO SNOW, AND ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND; WARMER, BUT BELOW AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK.
2) LOW, BUT NON-ZERO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER AND THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE FOR THIS MORNING HAVE EXPIRED. THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE MAINTAINED. HIGHER GUSTS IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY SHOULD PROVIDE WIND CHILL LEVELS OF 10 TO
20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THIS,
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE SNOW PACK SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C. GRIDDED
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE -2F TO -12F RANGE,
ALTHOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL BE COLDER...AT LEAST A FEW
READINGS OF -20F OR COLDER WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE. THE ADVISORY
STILL MATCHES THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR COVERAGE OF
-10F TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL WHILE MATCHING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD WILL CHALLENGE MANY AREA RECORDS (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION). THIS MAY BE ONE OF 10 TIMES IN PITTSBURGH
HISTORY WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMP WAS RECORDED AT 15F OR LOWER FOR
8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. ANALOGS FOR SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN 1994,
2015, AND 2018 SHOWED WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. THE
COLD WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT IS NOT PLOWED OR SHOVELED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND FROZEN THROUGH THE WEEK, MAKING TRAVEL
DIFFICULT ON BACK-ROADS.
THE "WARMING TREND" NEXT WEEK, BROUGHT BY THE DEPARTURE OF A
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW, WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL BETTER TO MANY FOLKS, BUT BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. EVEN BY
WEDNESDAY, RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE THE LEAST-COLD DAY NEXT WEEK,
THE NBM SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE, TO 90% NORTH OF I-80. EVEN BEYOND OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST, BELOW NORMAL (AND BELOW FREEZING) TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY. RAPID
ICE GROWTH ON AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL RAISE
CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS OVER THE COMING WEEKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FLURRY CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LIKING
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. WITH
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS EXISTING IN OR ABOVE THE IDEAL DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, ICE CRYSTAL PRESENCE/FORMATION WILL BE HIGHLY
FAVORED, SUCH THAT NEARLY ANY CLOUD CAN PRODUCE A FLURRY OF VERY
LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. ANY SUCH SNOW WILL HAVE VERY LOW-TO-NO
IMPACT, AS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO SPOTTY DUSTINGS AT
MOST.
AS FAR AS THE EXPECTED WEEKEND NOR'EASTER, MODELS HAVE NOW
COALESCED TO THE POINT WHERE WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO
NOTABLE IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT EVEN IN EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY, THE NBM SHOWS ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN INCH
FROM THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WITH PERIODIC IFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS UNDER UPPER TROUGHING
2) WEST WIND PREVAILS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS
------------------------------------------------------------
A SIMILAR DAY TO WEDNESDAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS ENTRENCHED. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED TO NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
AND WE'VE REACHED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. THUS, A
STRATOCU DECK HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED WITH A VERY SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. STILL, AKIN TO WEDNESDAY, ONCE THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP, THEY START TO SPIT OUT FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. WEAK LIFT IN THE SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AS IMPULSES
ROUND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW THIS TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS TO IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE RADAR RETURNS WILL LIKELY LOOK LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND HI
RES SOUNDINGS HOLD SATURATION JUST ABOVE THE DGZ, SNOW
CHARACTER LOOKS AGAIN TO BE FINE NEEDLES ENOUGH FOR PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MORE
RESTRICTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SEE CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND A
WEST WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES MAKING IT BACK INTO MGW AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL
BE THICKETS FOR ZZV AND MGW IN CLOSER SHORTWAVE PROXIMITY. WIND
RELAXES TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SNOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN FRIDAY 1/30:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 10F (1977)
DUBOIS, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -10F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1934)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -4F (2019)
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN SATURDAY 1/31:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
MORGANTOWN, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1965)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1948)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -6F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 11F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1955)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ009-013>016-020>022-029-073-074-076>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-049-050.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ001-002-512.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...CL/MILCAREK
AVIATION...MLB
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