822
FXUS61 KPBZ 301542
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1042 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT AREAWIDE TONIGHT FROM 7PM AND
11AM SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS OR LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND; WARMER, BUT BELOW AVERAGE
NEXT WEEK.
2) LOW, BUT NON-ZERO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
RISING TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING WITH BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE LENT TO
EXPIRING THE ACTIVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODERATION TOWARDS MID-TEENS AIR TEMPERATURE
READINGS IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE FALLING OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A WIDESPREAD 70% TO 80% CHANCE AREAS REMAIN CLOUD
FREE, MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OHIO. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. CLEAR SKIES,
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C, AND ONLY A LIGHT
WILD WILL RESULT IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
OUTBREAK FOR MOST, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE NEGATIVES. EVEN
A BRIEF 5KT WIND FOR THE HILLTOPS COULD TAKE MOST AREAS BELOW
WIND CHILL CRITERIA, AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE FOR THE INSULATED
VALLEYS MAY TAKE TEMPERATURES BELOW CRITERIA. THUS, AN AREAWIDE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SPANS FROM 7PM TONIGHT TO 11AM SATURDAY.
EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
COLD WILL CHALLENGE MANY AREA RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). THIS
MAY BE ONE OF 10 TIMES IN PITTSBURGH HISTORY WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMP
WAS RECORDED AT 15F OR LOWER FOR 8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. ANALOGS FOR
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN 1994, 2015, AND 2018 SHOWED WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. THE COLD WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT IS NOT
PLOWED OR SHOVELED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND FROZEN THROUGH THE WEEK,
MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT ON BACK-ROADS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TEMPERATURES RELATED TO THE DEPTH
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. INTER QUARTILES MAINTAIN HIGHS INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES
STILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH AT LEAST A
75% CHANCE EACH DAYS HIGH REMAINS BELOW FREEZING FOR NOW. RIVER
ICE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LARGELY LOW-TO-NO IMPACT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN
POSSIBLE TOMORROW. WHILE NUMERICAL MODELING IS VERY PESSIMISTIC
ON THIS, THE FORECAST WILL AT LEAST CARRY A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
WITH SOME BUILDING DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE AND EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION IN MIXED PHASE CLOUDS. THE TREND OF "IF YOU SEE A
CLOUD, IT MIGHT BE SNOWING" CONTINUES.
THE NEXT CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH PASSING CLIPPERS. CHANCES OF 1" OF SNOW ARE 30% TO 50%
(AREAWIDE) AND 20% TO 70% (HIGHEST FOR WESTERN PA AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF WV) ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MORNING LOW CEILINGS NORTHEAST OF PIT; LESS RESTRICTIVE
CLOUDS SOUTH OF MASON-DIXON LINE
2) WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MID- WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE
------------------------------------------------------------
COLD ADVECTION IS PROVIDING PATCHY IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PIT THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY IMPACTING DUJ AND ON A
MORE INTERMITTENT BASIS AT FKL. RESTRICTIONS ARE LESS LIKELY AT
OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. VFR
CEILINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING AT MGW. A FLURRY OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT. THESE WILL BE MOSTLY
NON-RESTRICTIVE BUT COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST
OF PIT, AND THESE WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK... PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY CREATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN FRIDAY 1/30:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 10F (1977)
DUBOIS, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -10F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1934)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -4F (2019)
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN SATURDAY 1/31:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
MORGANTOWN, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1965)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1948)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -6F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 11F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1955)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/MILCAREK
AVIATION...CL
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