281
FXUS61 KPBZ 301810
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- EXTREME COLD WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILL COULD DROP TO
AS LOW AS NEGATIVE 25 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROLONGED COLD CONTINUES
2) NEXT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT LIKELY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING (INCLUDING A DEEPENING WAVE
THIS WEEKEND) WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR MASS THAT REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THOUGH INTRODUCTION OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MAY LIMIT FORECASTING NOCTURNAL COOLING,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING PLUS JUST
ENOUGH WIND TO FOSTER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS TOMORROW
MORNING. A BREEZIER WIND SETUP ALONG THE WV HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NECESSITATED
A EXTREME COLD WATCH WITH WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY FALLING AS LOW
AS -25 DEGREES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FAVORS SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WITHIN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGHING TO AID RISING TEMPERATURE STARTING SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PROBABILITIES DON'T FAVOR A RETURN
TO DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT THE PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY IS 37 DEGREES; THE PROBABILITY OF EVEN RETURNING TO 32
DEGREES AT THIS SITE MAXES OUT AT 25% FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BEFORE FALLING LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RESULT IS A CONTINUATION OF
GENERALLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE THAT WILL STRESS COLD-WEATHER
VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMMUNITIES WHILE MAINTAINING AREA
SNOWPACKS WITH INCREASING RIVER ICE ACCUMULATION. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON VARIOUS COLD STREAKS AT PLAY, LOOK AT THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE REGIONAL TO OFFER MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING
FLURRIES (BUT COULD EXPAND TO MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IF IT
SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND INCREASES LIFT OVER THE REGION).
ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS MORE STRONGLY FAVORS THE NEXT WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATING PERIOD TO OCCUR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WHILE AIDING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL
CHANCES ARE GOING TO BE TIED TO THE FULL DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW; A LESS DEEP TROUGH SHOULD LEAD
TO A MORE NORTHERN-LOW TRACK AND PUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITHIN A HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW SECTOR. BUT EQUALLY AS LIKELY IS
FOR THE TROUGH (AND THUS, SURFACE LOW) TO DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO LEAVE THE REGION ONLY IN LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN COMPLETELY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) AFTERNOON MVFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY AT DUJ THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE AT FKL
2) WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MID-WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE
------------------------------------------------------------
COLD ADVECTION IS CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS NORTHEAST OF PIT,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING DUJ AND ON A MORE INTERMITTENT BASIS AT
FKL. IN OTHER AREAS, SOME SPOTTY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR IN MOST
CASES. A FLURRY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT.
THESE WILL BE MOSTLY NON-RESTRICTIVE BUT COULD DROP VISIBILITY
TO MVFR BRIEFLY AT TIMES. MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY CUMULUS WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET, AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT OR CALM WIND, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID MORNING TEMPERATURES.
PAST 12Z, SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS CREEP ABOVE 50 PERCENT ON THE
HREF TOWARDS MIDDAY AT FKL/DUJ, BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK... PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY CREATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN SATURDAY 1/31:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
MORGANTOWN, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1965)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1948)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -6F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 11F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1955)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...CL
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