598
FXUS61 KPBZ 310625
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADED TO EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH
11AM FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT GIVEN TEMPERATURE CLOUD
COVER TRENDS. LOCALIZED TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20
TO 30 BELOW POSSIBLE.
- NEW EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER FROM 7PM SATURDAY
TO 1PM SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES, SAVE
MERCER/VENANGO/FOREST, FROM 7PM SATURDAY TO 11AM SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO 15 BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT, SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
3) NO SHADOW FAVORED FOR GROUNDHOG DAY.
2) NEXT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE MID AND LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GIVEN SLOW ENOUGH CLOUD COVER ADVANCES FROM THE NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW 20 BELOW FOR ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE A PORTION OF THIS
MORNING'S ADVISORY TO A WARNING WITH WIND CHILLS AND/OR
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 BELOW. THE COLDEST
POCKETS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN INSULATED VALLEYS WITH CALM WIND,
EFFICIENT COOLING, AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE. HILLTOPS MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO GUST, PUSHING WIND
CHILLS NEAR WARNING CRITERIA. AN ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF TEMPERATURES AND/OR WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 TO 20 BELOW, MOST LIKELY.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO THE MID TEENS FOR MOST, THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL
STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE SINGLE DIGITS. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING
CLOUD COVER. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC PROFILES INTO A SATURATED
DGZ ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH LARGELY LOW- TO- NO IMPACTS FORESEEN.
TONIGHT WILL CARRY THE NEXT, AND LIKELY LAST, ROUND OF COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MOST. CLOUD COVER WILL POSE MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN TRUE RADIATIVE COOLING, THROUGH WIND GUSTS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN WRAP-AROUND FLOW FROM A NOR-EASTER
PASSING TO THE EAST. MOST LIKELY WIND CHILLS SIT IN THE 5 TO 15
BELOW RANGE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR THE HILLTOPS. LOWER VALUES
OF DOWN TO 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE RIDGES OF
PA AND WV.
SUNDAY, HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY ESCAPE THE TEENS INTO THE 20S FOR
SOME. SUNDAY NIGHT, MINIMUM WIND CHILLS ARE ACTUALLY FAVORED TO
BE WARMER THAN CRITERIA FOR MOST, SAVE EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK FORECAST WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT ARE
MOSTLY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND WARMER HIGHS
ARE FORECAST. NONETHELESS, THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE ON THE
HIGHS IS STILL ENTIRELY BELOW AVERAGE AND SHOWS A 75% CHANCE OF
SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN PITTSBURGH. THE CPC
HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
SIGNALING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE CHANCE OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FEBRUARY 7TH TO FEBRUARY 10TH PERIOD. RIVER
ICE GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR REMAIN STEADY ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
IS STILL FAVORED FOR NOW, WITH A 90% CHANCE OF >50% CLOUD COVER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN PUNXSUTAWNEY. THIS MIGHT SLIGHTLY
FAVOR NO SHADOW. TRADITIONALLY, THIS WOULD MEAN AN EARLY SPRING,
BUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DISAGREES.
ANYONE IN ATTENDANCE WILL HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS INTO
THE NEGATIVES. REMEMBER TO DRESS IN LAYERS, WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES, AND AVOID EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS IF POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONTINUED EASTERN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURE COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW CHANCES. THE FIRST OF
WHICH REMAINS MOST LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER MERGES WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW. THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS TRENDED SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS,
ALLOWING ONLY A 30% CHANCE OF >1" SOUTH OF I-70 FOR NOW. 15%
CHANCES OF ADVISORY CRITERIA ONLY LINGER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
PA/WV FOR NOW. THE ONLY EVENT WHERE CHANCES MIGHT TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IS IN THE EVENT THE EASTERN TROUGH IS DEEPER THAN THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN, THOUGH THIS IS ONLY AROUND 25% OF GUIDANCE FOR
NOW.
THE NEXT SNOW CHANCE WILL COME ON A CLIPPER, MOST LIKELY TO
PASS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A SURPRISINGLY HIGH
CONSISTENCY IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. CHANCES OF >1" WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
GENERALLY 40% TO 70% NOW, LOWEST IN OH AND HIGHEST IN PA AND WV.
>3" IS ONLY 10% TO 30% LIKELY IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND HIGH
TERRAIN FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS INCREASE TODAY
2) PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY RETURN SNOW TUESDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK, CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE, WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH THIS MORNING, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DUJ AND FKL ARE ALREADY
REPORTING PERIODS OF CLOUDS NEAR 2KFT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
PROJECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES (MVFR) CONDITIONS AT OTHER
TERMINALS BETWEEN 16Z TO 20Z TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
VARIABLE/WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY MID-DAY.
OUTLOOK... LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY CREATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW. PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1")
RANGES FROM 20-50% ACROSS THE REGION; HIGHER PROBABILITIES NOTED
SOUTH OF PIT.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN SATURDAY 1/31:
PITTSBURGH, PA (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -5F (2019)
MORGANTOWN, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (1965)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 12F (2019)
WHEELING, WV (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1948)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -6F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD) 11F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (DAILY LOW MIN TEMP RECORD) -8F (1955)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ013>016-020-022-077-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-021-029-031-073>076.
OH...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ039>041-050.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ048-
049-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ002>004-012-021-509>514.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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