190
FXUS61 KPBZ 010509
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1209 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY
2) SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
3) PROLONGED COLD AND PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES--AN ADVISORY SOUTH OF I-80 AND A WARNING FOR EASTERN
TUCKER--UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -10F
TO -25F ARE EXPECTED, WITH COLDEST READINGS IN EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WIND CHILLS TO RISE ABOVE -10F, ELIMINATING THE
NEED FOR A NEW ADVISORY. HOWEVER, A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS PERSISTS IN EASTERN TUCKER, PROMPTING A NEW ADVISORY FROM
1PM SUNDAY TO 11AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXPECT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY, TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PATH, INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, SUGGESTS ONLY MINOR IMPACTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. SPECIALLY, NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AROUND I-68,
COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. GIVEN
THESE MINIMAL EXPECTED IMPACTS, THE CHANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS LOW (UNDER 15%).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH EVEN THE WARMEST DAYS
APPEARING TO BARELY REACH OR EXCEED FREEZING. IN FACT, THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ONLY A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING 32 DEGREES ON TUESDAY (FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-70) AND A
30-60% CHANCE ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST IN EASTERN OH AND THE MON
VALLEY). GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS THE UPPER 30S, THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE WEEK REMAINING COLDER THAN SEASONAL
NORMS.
MEANWHILE, A FEW GLANCING BLOWS FROM QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COULD BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT POPS CURRENTLY TOP OUT
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ANY GIVEN DAY AS A LACK OF DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RATES LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE
LATEST NBM SUGGESTS ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF
SNOW ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE RIDGES AND ALONG A MERCER-LATROBE
CORRIDOR, FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PROBABILITIES (UP TO 40%) IN THE
RIDGES AND MON VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE TUESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL, GIVEN HOW
COLD THE GROUND IS WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF BITTER COLD, ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL STICK TO UNTREATED SURFACES AND COULD
CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME SLICK.
RIGHT NOW, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR NOTABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
APPEARS TO BE WITH THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THEN, A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, BRINGING STRONGER SYNOPTIC
ASCENT TO THE OHIO VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS LOWER
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SOURCE LOCATION AND
TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH A
NOTABLE "WARM" SECTOR, HENCE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINING
NEAR OR BARELY ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND A PREVAILING PTYPE
OF SNOW, EVEN AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. AS
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, LATEST LONG- RANGE ENSEMBLE INTERQUARTILES
FAVOR SUB- ADVISORY SNOWFALL (LESS THAN 3 INCHES) ACROSS
LOWLAND AREAS AND HIGHER AMOUNTS (3 TO 6 INCHES) IN THE RIDGES.
HOWEVER, THESE NUMBERS SHOULD ALL BE TAKEN WITH A HEAPING
TABLESPOON OF SALT THIS FAR OUT. WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM IS A REINFORCING SHOT OF THE CRISP NORTHERN
CANADIAN AIR WE'VE GROWN TO LOVE (OR HATE) OVER THE PAST WEEK,
WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
2) LOW PROBABILITY FLURRIES POSSIBLE, BUT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR TAF
MENTION OUTSIDE OF FKL
------------------------------------------------------------
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRAW AREAS OF MVFR
CIG INTO THE REGION THAT ARE LIKELY (60-80% PROBABILITY) TO
LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO LAKE ERIE
BEING NEARLY FROZEN AND THE MOISTURE SOURCE (LAKE HURON) BEING
FARTHER AWAY, PERIODS OF STRATOCU SCATTERING RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES IS
UNCERTAIN. THERE ALSO MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE A FEW
FLURRIES (MOST LIKELY AT FKL, BUT AS FAR SOUTH OF PIT) DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING
AND DURATION OF ANY FALLING SNOW, SO IT WAS GENERALLY PRECLUDED
FROM TAF MENTION.
GRADUAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LIFTING OF THE STRATOCU
UNDERNEATH UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED BY MAY BEGIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL WNW TO NW
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY OFFER
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS AMID A MORE
PREVAILING VFR PATTERN.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SNOW COULD DEVELOP WITH A LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM, BUT VARIABILITY IN
TIMING/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME REMAINS HIGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ013>016-
020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>513.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page