119
FXUS61 KPBZ 011139
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ON FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY
2) SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
3) PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES--AN ADVISORY SOUTH OF I-80 AND A WARNING FOR EASTERN
TUCKER--UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -10F
TO -25F ARE EXPECTED, WITH COLDEST READINGS IN EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WIND CHILLS TO RISE ABOVE -10F, ELIMINATING THE
NEED FOR A NEW ADVISORY. HOWEVER, A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS PERSISTS IN EASTERN TUCKER, PROMPTING A NEW ADVISORY FROM
1PM SUNDAY TO 11AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXPECT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY, TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS PATH, INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, SUGGESTS ONLY MINOR IMPACTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. SPECIALLY, NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AROUND I-68,
COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. GIVEN
THESE MINIMAL EXPECTED IMPACTS, THE CHANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS LOW (UNDER 15%).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FORECAST STRONGLY INDICATES THAT EXTENDED COLD WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A
PERSISTENT, STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
CAUSING A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY IS INCREASING, DRIVEN BY A POTENTIAL PASSING TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS A HIGH
PROBABILITIES (OVER 70%) FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR THREE INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE
RANGES BETWEEN 20-70%, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEING ISSUED MID-WEEK. THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE RIDGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTER STORM (+6") IS ELEVATED IN THE RIDGES OF OF TUCKER
COUNTY. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY FOR THE TAF PERIOD
------------------------------------------------------------
AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MEANWHILE, NARROW BANDS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE
CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO OCCASIONALLY DIP TO MVFR, THOUGH WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. THESE ARE REFLECTED IN
TEMPOS AT IMPACTED TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE STRATOCU DECK SCATTERS BY THIS AFTERNOON,
RETURNING THE AREA TO PREVAILING VFR. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LIMITED OR NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE, LEFT OUT
MENTION IN TAFS THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT, FAVORING AREAS ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.
OUTLOOK...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO VFR IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MVFR CHANCES INCREASE TO 50% TO 70% MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-WEEK ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROBABILITIES FOR SOME
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS (20% TO 30%). A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SNOW CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK
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