969
FXUS61 KPBZ 011843
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ON FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING; ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR COLD TEMPERATURES MAY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT
2) SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
3) PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SLIGHT MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION COULD HELP PREVENT THE NEED FOR WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR THE FIRST NIGHT IN AWHILE, AS THE ONLY COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IS FOR EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 15 BELOW
ZERO. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) MEAN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN 10 BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS EXCEPT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO NORTH OF I-70,
WHERE IT ALSO SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CLEARER SKIES
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA IS
CAUSING CLOUD COVER (OR LACK THEREOF) THIS AFTERNOON TO VERIFY
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH NBM PERCENTILES. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, THEN IT'S REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP COLDER THAN THE NBM SUGGESTS,
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS MORE OF
THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING OVER EASTERN OHIO. THE HREF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON
THIS POTENTIAL FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES -- PERHAPS BECAUSE IT
ALSO SUGGESTS CLEARER SKIES THAN THE NBM -- WITH A ROUGHLY 40%
TO 60% PROBABILITY FOR ALL LOWLAND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE
OF ADVISORIES JUST YET, IT WILL WARRANT KEEPING AN EYE ON
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A
SHORT-FUSE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXPECT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY, TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM'S PATH, INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, SUGGESTS ONLY MINOR IMPACTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AROUND THE I-68 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. GIVEN
THESE MINIMAL EXPECTED IMPACTS, THE CHANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS LOW (UNDER 15%).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FORECAST STRONGLY INDICATES THAT EXTENDED COLD WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A
PERSISTENT, STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
CAUSING A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY IS INCREASING, DRIVEN BY A PASSING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NBM SHOWS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (OVER 70%) FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR THREE INCHES OR MORE RANGES
BETWEEN 20-70%, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED MID-WEEK. THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE RIDGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING (+6") IS ELEVATED IN THE RIDGES OF
OF TUCKER COUNTY. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
2) HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
------------------------------------------------------------
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE HAS AIDED IN THE MIXING AND
SCATTERING OF THE STRATOCU DECK THAT MOVED INTO THE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS VFR
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH THE ONLY LINGERING STRATOCU
HUGGING THE RIDGES NEAR LBE/MGW THANKS TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
(BUT EVEN THERE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER BASED ON RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY). EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 7 OT 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SURPRISING SPREAD AMONG HI-RES GUIDANCE IN REGARDS
TO MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SPLIT IN A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION, WITH
THE TWO SCENARIOS BEING EITHER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OR BKN/OVC
MVFR STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING IN THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO. THUS,
OPTED WITH PREVAILING VFR OVERNIGHT. IF REDEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR, THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGES NEAR LBE AND
MGW. MEANWHILE, WINDS TONIGHT RELAX AND GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING, BUT
VFR IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CHANCES INCREASE TO 50% TO 70% MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID-WEEK ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROBABILITIES FOR
SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS (20% TO 30%). A MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SNOW CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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