337
FXUS61 KPBZ 012311
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ON FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING; ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR COLD TEMPERATURES MAY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT
2) SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY
3) PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SLIGHT MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION COULD HELP PREVENT THE NEED FOR WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR THE FIRST NIGHT IN AWHILE, AS THE ONLY COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IS FOR EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 15 BELOW
ZERO. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) MEAN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN 10 BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS EXCEPT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO NORTH OF I-70,
WHERE IT ALSO SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CLEARER SKIES
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA IS
CAUSING CLOUD COVER (OR LACK THEREOF) THIS AFTERNOON TO VERIFY
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH NBM PERCENTILES. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, THEN IT'S REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP COLDER THAN THE NBM SUGGESTS,
POSSIBLY REACHING THE 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS MORE OF
THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING OVER EASTERN OHIO. THE HREF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON
THIS POTENTIAL FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES -- PERHAPS BECAUSE IT
ALSO SUGGESTS CLEARER SKIES THAN THE NBM -- WITH A ROUGHLY 40%
TO 60% PROBABILITY FOR ALL LOWLAND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE
OF ADVISORIES JUST YET, IT WILL WARRANT KEEPING AN EYE ON
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A
SHORT-FUSE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXPECT A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY, TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM'S PATH, INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, SUGGESTS ONLY MINOR IMPACTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AROUND THE I-68 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. GIVEN
THESE MINIMAL EXPECTED IMPACTS, THE CHANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS LOW (UNDER 15%).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FORECAST STRONGLY INDICATES THAT EXTENDED COLD WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A
PERSISTENT, STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
CAUSING A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY IS INCREASING, DRIVEN BY A PASSING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NBM SHOWS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (OVER 70%) FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR THREE INCHES OR MORE RANGES
BETWEEN 20-70%, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED MID-WEEK. THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE RIDGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING (+6") IS ELEVATED IN THE RIDGES OF
OF TUCKER COUNTY. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING
2) UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AN MVFR STRATOCU LAYER DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY MORNING
3) MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT UNDER A BUILDING LOW LEVEL RIDGE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVERNIGHT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MVFR
STRATOCU LAYER. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LAYER, GIVEN THE BUILDING
LOW LEVEL RIDGING. MODELS WERE SLOW EARLIER TODAY CLEARING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL. FOR NOW, INCLUDED A SCT015 FOR MOST
AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL AT A STRATOCU
LAYER, THOUGH WAS NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR CIGS FROM W-E MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME FLURRIES ALSO
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION COULD ALSO SPREAD
SOME SNOW ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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