234
FXUS61 KPBZ 020628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOW FOR THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA
TUESDAY
- WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY ON FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY,
WV THROUGH 11AM TODAY.
2) SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
3) PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS AND WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY UNTIL 11AM TODAY, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES ALREADY
MEASURING BETWEEN -10 TO -20 DEGREES AS OF 1AM THIS MORNING.
OTHER AREAS SHOULD ANTICIPATE WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO -10 DEGREES. NO FURTHER COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SNOW IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
DUE TO A LOW- PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
AND VENTURING INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG I-68,
WITH SNOWFALL RATES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES
PER HOUR. CURRENT TOTALS ALONG WEST VIRGINIA RIDGES ARE
FORECAST AT 2-3 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
FOR TUCKER COUNTY IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AS NEW HIGH-
RESOLUTION DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FORECAST STRONGLY INDICATES THAT EXTENDED COLD WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A
PERSISTENT, STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
CAUSING A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY IS INCREASING, DRIVEN BY A PASSING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NBM SHOWS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (OVER 70%) FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR THREE INCHES OR MORE RANGES
BETWEEN 20-70%, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED MID-WEEK. THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE RIDGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING (+6") IS ELEVATED IN THE RIDGES OF
OF TUCKER COUNTY. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR, SAVE IFR CHANCES AT FKL AND DUJ THIS MORNING.
2) MVFR/IFR CHANCES INCREASE IN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE MONDAY.
------------------------------------------------------------
GIVEN CLOUD COVER TRENDS AT 06Z, ITS MORE LIKELY THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL RETAIN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS,
SAVE A LIMITED IFR STRATUS DECK THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
FKL AND DUJ THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 12Z.
MID CLOUD LAYERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY FAVORED OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE MONDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
REGIME OF EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE PAST AND ASCENT IN
THE LOW-LEVELS THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER INTO MIXED-PHASE
CLOUDS, IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN MODELS MIGHT ALLUDE OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
CHANCES OF MVFR SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 18Z TO ROUGHLY
02Z. ROUGHLY A 40% TO 70% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS FILL IN SHORTLY
AFTER WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOW. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST CIG FALLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PIT,
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE EAST, WITH A LARGE
SPREAD IN POTENTIAL VIS FROM 1/4SM TO 6SM; OPTED TO TAKE VIS
FALLS TO 2SM FOR NOW, CLOSER TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE.
SOME LIFTING IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
INTENSITY BY DAYBREAK, BUT THE RE STILL AT LEAST A 75% OF AT
LEAST MVFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION COULD ALSO SPREAD SOME SNOW ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM/MILCAREK
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