857
FXUS61 KPBZ 021839
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA COVERING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY IMPACT THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE IN NORTHERN WV, PROMPTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY
2) NEXT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY THAT MAY NEED FUTURE
WINTER HEADLINES
3) COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE AREA CLOUD COVER AND OFFER PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT OFFER LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A FOLLOW-UP SHORTWAVE THAT AIDS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE TN RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A NARROW BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. AIDED BY WEAK LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND WEAK MID- LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES, BOTH HI-
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH
0.1"-0.25"/HR RATES THAT COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
0.5"/HR IF QPF PLUS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ENDS UP ON THE HIGHER
END OF EACH SNOW CONTRIBUTOR. THOUGH THE RESULT MAY STILL ONLY
BE TOTALS IN THE 1-3" RANGE (WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSSIBLE AMID
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN), PEAK SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION STRONGLY FAVORS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD
THAT ALIGNS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING ROAD COMMUTES. DUE TO THIS
COMBINATION OF NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW PLUS HEIGHTENED
ROAD IMPACTS AS IT COINCIDES WITH EVENING COMMUTE, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED GENERALLY SURROUNDING THE I-79 AND
I-68 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WV.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS PERIOD IS THE NORTH/SOUTH
PLACEMENT OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW-AXIS. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
VARIATION IN WHETHER IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ADVISORY-AREA
CORRIDOR OR TRENDS SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH FROM THERE. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICE FORECAST AND MESSAGING TO SEE IF SUCH
CHANGES OCCUR FROM CURRENT ANALYSIS TO BEST ADJUST EVENT
EXPECTATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODEL AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS ARE FAIRLY PREDICTABLE
LATE WEEK PATTERN SHOWING A JET-STREAK AND ITS SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH VARIANCES MAINLY TIED TO
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE.
GREATER ASCENT WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FAVORS WIDESPREAD
SNOW THAT SEES NEAR TO SUB-ADVISORY TOTALS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS (80-100% PROBABILITY VIA LATEST MODEL DATA).
THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
RESULTS IN A LARGER SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY FOR TOTALS NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND WITHIN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/WV TERRAIN BUT LENDS TOWARD
ADVISORY-LEVEL AMOUNTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA (REMINDER: 6" OR MORE IS WARNING CRITERIA).
THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK (OR OFFER VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF LAKE-ENHANCED BANDS
USING MOISTURE FROM HURON), QUICK EXIT OF THE WAVE SHOULD END
ANY IMPACTS THAT DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WILL ALSO RETURN VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT CAUSES AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES FOR
LOWS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS
GUSTY WIND (MOST AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES THAT COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR CIGS TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE IFR
TONIGHT.
2) LIGHT SNOW /FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
BUT HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVERAGE ALREADY INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INITIALLY LOOK
TO BE BETWEEN 5-8KFT, BUT EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS IDEA ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, WITH 60-90%
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND INCREASING IFR CIG PROBABILITIES TONIGHT. ANALOGS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL DATA, AND EXPECT
RESTRICTIONS TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH INSTANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT (MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T PICKED UP ON THE
SNOW...WITH 0-5% PROBABILITIES), HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION IN
LATEST TAFS AS IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.
ANY UPSTREAM OBS CURRENTLY REPORTING -SN HAVE MAINTAINED
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND SEE NO REASON
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION COULD ALSO SPREAD SOME SNOW ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...88
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