720
FXUS61 KPBZ 030543
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1243 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA COVERING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY IMPACT THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE IN NORTHERN WV, PROMPTING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY
2) NEXT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY THAT MAY NEED FUTURE
WINTER HEADLINES
3) COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE AREA CLOUD COVER AND OFFER PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THAT OFFER LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A FOLLOW-UP SHORTWAVE THAT AIDS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE TN RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A NARROW BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. AIDED BY WEAK LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND WEAK MID- LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES, BOTH HI-
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH
0.1"-0.25"/HR RATES THAT COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
0.5"/HR IF QPF PLUS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ENDS UP ON THE HIGHER
END OF EACH SNOW CONTRIBUTOR. THOUGH THE RESULT MAY STILL ONLY
BE TOTALS IN THE 1-3" RANGE (WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSSIBLE AMID
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN), PEAK SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION STRONGLY FAVORS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD
THAT ALIGNS WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING ROAD COMMUTES. DUE TO THIS
COMBINATION OF NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW PLUS HEIGHTENED
ROAD IMPACTS AS IT COINCIDES WITH EVENING COMMUTE, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED GENERALLY SURROUNDING THE I-79 AND
I-68 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WV.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS PERIOD IS THE NORTH/SOUTH
PLACEMENT OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW-AXIS. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
VARIATION IN WHETHER IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ADVISORY-AREA
CORRIDOR OR TRENDS SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH FROM THERE. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICE FORECAST AND MESSAGING TO SEE IF SUCH
CHANGES OCCUR FROM CURRENT ANALYSIS TO BEST ADJUST EVENT
EXPECTATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODEL AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS ARE FAIRLY PREDICTABLE
LATE WEEK PATTERN SHOWING A JET-STREAK AND ITS SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH VARIANCES MAINLY TIED TO
THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE.
GREATER ASCENT WITH MID-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FAVORS WIDESPREAD
SNOW THAT SEES NEAR TO SUB-ADVISORY TOTALS FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS (80-100% PROBABILITY VIA LATEST MODEL DATA).
THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
RESULTS IN A LARGER SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY FOR TOTALS NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND WITHIN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/WV TERRAIN BUT LENDS TOWARD
ADVISORY-LEVEL AMOUNTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY NEAR WARNING
CRITERIA (REMINDER: 6" OR MORE IS WARNING CRITERIA).
THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK (OR OFFER VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF LAKE-ENHANCED BANDS
USING MOISTURE FROM HURON), QUICK EXIT OF THE WAVE SHOULD END
ANY IMPACTS THAT DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WILL ALSO RETURN VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT CAUSES AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES FOR
LOWS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS
GUSTY WIND (MOST AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES THAT COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) SNOW AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
------------------------------------------------------------
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SETTLING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TO
START THE TAF PERIOD. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS BRINGING A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL, THOUGH THIS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING MGW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PERSISTENT SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT MGW DURING AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
AS WITH THE PRIOR PACKAGE, THIS IS REFLECTED IN TAFS WITH
PREVAILING SNOW MENTIONED AT MGW AND PROB30S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
FKL/DUJ WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...CERMAK/RACKLEY
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