149
FXUS61 KPBZ 031143
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST PERIOD
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS FRIDAY
3) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY MORNING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE, A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON THE
ROADWAYS COULD OCCUR NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE REAL IMPACT BEGINS
AFTER 12PM TODAY AS A LARGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE WEST. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD PREP FOR
MODERATE SNOW BETWEEN 2PM AND 9PM, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
DUE TO TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON/TUCKER COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS DUE TO UPSLOPING. ADVANCING DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-70. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER FORMAL WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS (CLIMBING FORM 15:1 TO 20:1 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT), EXPECT
A VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MODERATE AMOUNTS, EASTERN TUCKER HAS A 30% CHANCES OF SEEING
WINTER STORM CRITERIA (HITTING THE 6-INCH MARK).
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WATCH FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW DUE TO MOUNTAIN "UPSLOPE"
EFFECTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE, LEAVING THE REGION WITH DRIER, COLDER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW
ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS GUSTY WIND (MOST
AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THAT
COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
2) LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIED MUCH OF TODAY NORTH OF MGW
2) SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR VISIBILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
------------------------------------------------------------
ANY REMAINING VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER. A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME JET ENHANCED ASCENT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF MORE
ENHANCED SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I 70, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT MGW.
CURRENTLY EXPECT AND INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AT MGW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE WAVE SHIFT
EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH 2-3 INCH PROBABILITIES FROM 30 TO 70
PERCENT (WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN PA AND THE
RIDGES.) MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW
FLOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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