131
FXUS61 KPBZ 031830
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SNOW TOTALS HAVE DECREASED OVERALL WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH
THE SFC LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS FRIDAY
3) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN AN OVERALL SOUTHWARD TREND WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGGED PASS TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER, NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN THE TIMING OF ANY MORE INTENSE
SNOW (3-7PM) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK COATING ON ROADWAYS,
AS WELL AS BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA (3") SHOULD
BE LARGELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL POSSIBLY WARRANT WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW- TO- LIQUID
RATIOS (CLIMBING FORM 15:1 TO 20:1 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT), EXPECT
A VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MODERATE AMOUNTS, EASTERN TUCKER HAS A 30% CHANCES OF SEEING
WINTER STORM CRITERIA (HITTING THE 6-INCH MARK).
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WATCH FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW DUE TO MOUNTAIN "UPSLOPE"
EFFECTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE, LEAVING THE REGION WITH DRIER, COLDER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW
ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS GUSTY WIND (MOST
AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THAT
COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
2) LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING
2) SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-68 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
------------------------------------------------------------
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE, WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. A SURFACE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME JET ENHANCED ASCENT ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF MORE ENHANCED
SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-68, WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT MGW.
CURRENTLY EXPECT AND INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AT MGW THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE WAVE SHIFT EAST.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH 2-3 INCH PROBABILITIES FROM 30 TO 70
PERCENT (WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN PA AND THE
RIDGES.) MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW
FLOW. VFR SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ012-
021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/88
AVIATION...WM
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