966
FXUS61 KPBZ 032354
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
654 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SNOW TOTALS HAVE DECREASED OVERALL WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH
THE SFC LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS FRIDAY
3) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN AN OVERALL SOUTHWARD TREND WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGGED PASS TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER, NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN THE TIMING OF ANY MORE INTENSE
SNOW (3-7PM) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK COATING ON ROADWAYS,
AS WELL AS BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA (3") SHOULD
BE LARGELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL POSSIBLY WARRANT WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW- TO- LIQUID
RATIOS (CLIMBING FORM 15:1 TO 20:1 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT), EXPECT
A VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MODERATE AMOUNTS, EASTERN TUCKER HAS A 30% CHANCES OF SEEING
WINTER STORM CRITERIA (HITTING THE 6-INCH MARK).
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WATCH FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW DUE TO MOUNTAIN "UPSLOPE"
EFFECTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE, LEAVING THE REGION WITH DRIER, COLDER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW
ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS GUSTY WIND (MOST
AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THAT
COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
2) POSSIBLE BRIEF SCATTERING OF LOW STRATOCU DURING PRE-DAWN
AND MORNING HOURS
------------------------------------------------------------
CEILINGS HOVER AT LOW-END VFR OR MVFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO LINGERING
NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS, GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LINGERING STRATOCU DECK WITH CEILINGS REMAINING UNCHANGED OR
SEEING SLIGHT DETERIORATION TO MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH-END MVFR.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SCATTERING OF
STRATOCU DURING THE 10Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-80 AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE LATEST NBM SHOWS AN 80% OR
BETTER CHANCE OF SCT/FEW TOTAL CLOUD COVER DURING THAT WINDOW.
SCATTERING IS LESS LIKELY, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE (~50% CHANCE),
OUTSIDE OF THOSE BOUNDS AT FKL/DUJ/MGW.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING, THOUGH THE NBM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS.
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CEILINGS REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY 20% OR
LESS) AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SNOW RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW,
WITH 2-3 INCH PROBABILITIES FROM 30 TO 70 PERCENT (WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN PA AND THE RIDGES.) MVFR CIGS
COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW. VFR SHOULD
RETURN SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ012-
021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/88
AVIATION...CERMAK
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