079
FXUS61 KPBZ 040635
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
135 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW CAN CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS IN
WEST VIRGINIA, THE RISK FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS DECREASING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS FRIDAY
2) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL POSSIBLY WARRANT WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW- TO- LIQUID
RATIOS (CLIMBING FORM 15:1 TO 20:1 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT), EXPECT
A VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MODERATE AMOUNTS, EASTERN TUCKER HAS A 30% CHANCES OF SEEING
WINTER STORM CRITERIA (HITTING THE 6-INCH MARK).
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WATCH FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW DUE TO MOUNTAIN "UPSLOPE"
EFFECTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE, LEAVING THE REGION WITH DRIER, COLDER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2....
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW
ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS GUSTY WIND (MOST
AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THAT
COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
2) POSSIBLE BRIEF SCATTERING OF LOW STRATOCU DURING PRE-DAWN
AND MORNING HOURS
------------------------------------------------------------
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LINGERING STRATOCU REMAINS NEAR
3KFT WITH SITES BOUNCING BETWEEN LOW VFR AND HIGH MVFR. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SCATTERED DURING THE
10Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING, THOUGH THE NBM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RETURN THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR PROBABILITIES REMAINING LOW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SNOW RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW,
WITH 2-3 INCH PROBABILITIES FROM 30 TO 70 PERCENT (WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN PA AND THE RIDGES.) MVFR CIGS
COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW. VFR SHOULD
RETURN SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK/RACKLEY
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