012
FXUS61 KPBZ 040756
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PASSING COLD FRONT.
MONITORING LONG-RANGE MODELS FOR POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY MORNING WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER
2) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
3) POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SNOW-PRODUCING
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT LEAST
ONE INCH OF SNOW IS HIGHLY PROBABLE (OVER 65% CHANCE)
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAS COULD MEASURE AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES. HIGHER PROBABILITIES (60-80% CHANCE) FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOW (OVER 3 INCHES) ARE FORECASTED ALONG THE RIDGES OF
FAYETTE, PRESTON, AND TUCKER COUNTIES DUE UPSLOPING EFFECTS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 10AM AND 5PM,
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SNOW TYPE; IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW, WITH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING FROM 15:1
TO 18:1.
A COLD FRONT ADVANCING OVER LAKE ERIE BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER A SECOND PEAK IN HEAVY SNOW, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BE PREPARED
FOR RAPIDLY CRASHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IF SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2....
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL SWITCH FROM SNOW TO EXTREME COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE SINGLE TO LOW-TEENS BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. WITH PREVAILING WIND GUSTS OF 25-30MPH NEAR THE
SURFACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO, LIKELY
PROMPTINGADVISORY-LEVEL COLD HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70.
WITH LITTLE WIND RELIEF EXPECTED SATURDAY AND EVENING, COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.
SATURDAY'S FORECASTED LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEAR DAILY
RECORDS FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES. FOR EXAMPLE, ZANESVILLE IS
FORECASTING A HIGH NEAR 20F (RECORD IS 17F FROM 2014), AND
WHEELING IS FORECASTING 20F (THE RECORD IS 17F FROM 2007).
KEY MESSAGE 3....
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE EAST COAST'S WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD FINALLY BRING ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WARMING TREND IS
DEPENDENT ON A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
CALIFORNIA TO HELP PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW. THE MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SNOW TO MELT, WHICH COULD AFFECT LOCAL ICY
RIVERS, CURRENTLY 3-6 INCHES THICK. THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK IS ESTIMATED AT 1.3 (AROUND THE PITTSBURGH
METRO REGION) TO 2.3 INCHES (AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH). ALONG
WITH SNOW MELT, SHOULD A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOP AND
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
2) POSSIBLE BRIEF SCATTERING OF LOW STRATOCU DURING PRE-DAWN
AND MORNING HOURS
------------------------------------------------------------
CEILINGS HOVER AT LOW-END VFR OR MVFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO LINGERING
NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF I-70. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS, GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LINGERING STRATOCU DECK WITH CEILINGS REMAINING UNCHANGED OR
SEEING SLIGHT DETERIORATION TO MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH-END MVFR.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SCATTERING OF
STRATOCU DURING THE 10Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-80 AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE LATEST NBM SHOWS AN 80% OR
BETTER CHANCE OF SCT/FEW TOTAL CLOUD COVER DURING THAT WINDOW.
SCATTERING IS LESS LIKELY, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE (~50% CHANCE),
OUTSIDE OF THOSE BOUNDS AT FKL/DUJ/MGW.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING, THOUGH THE NBM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS.
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CEILINGS REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY 20% OR
LESS) AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SNOW RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A 60-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW,
WITH 2-3 INCH PROBABILITIES FROM 30 TO 70 PERCENT (WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN PA AND THE RIDGES.) MVFR CIGS
COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW. VFR SHOULD
RETURN SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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