584
FXUS61 KPBZ 041137
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PASSING COLD FRONT.
MONITORING LONG-RANGE MODELS FOR POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY MORNING WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER
2) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
3) POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SNOW-PRODUCING
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT LEAST
ONE INCH OF SNOW IS HIGHLY PROBABLE (OVER 65% CHANCE)
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAS COULD MEASURE AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES. HIGHER PROBABILITIES (60-80% CHANCE) FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL
SNOW (OVER 3 INCHES) ARE FORECASTED ALONG THE RIDGES OF
FAYETTE, PRESTON, AND TUCKER COUNTIES DUE UPSLOPING EFFECTS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 10AM AND 5PM,
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SNOW TYPE; IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW, WITH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING FROM 15:1
TO 18:1.
A COLD FRONT ADVANCING OVER LAKE ERIE BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY MAY TRIGGER A SECOND PEAK IN HEAVY SNOW, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BE PREPARED
FOR RAPIDLY CRASHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IF SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2....
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL SWITCH FROM SNOW TO EXTREME COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE SINGLE TO LOW-TEENS BEFORE DAWN
SATURDAY. WITH PREVAILING WIND GUSTS OF 25-30MPH NEAR THE
SURFACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO, LIKELY
PROMPTINGADVISORY-LEVEL COLD HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70.
WITH LITTLE WIND RELIEF EXPECTED SATURDAY AND EVENING, COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.
SATURDAY'S FORECASTED LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEAR DAILY
RECORDS FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES. FOR EXAMPLE, ZANESVILLE IS
FORECASTING A HIGH NEAR 20F (RECORD IS 17F FROM 2014), AND
WHEELING IS FORECASTING 20F (THE RECORD IS 17F FROM 2007).
KEY MESSAGE 3....
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE EAST COAST'S WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD FINALLY BRING ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WARMING TREND IS
DEPENDENT ON A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
CALIFORNIA TO HELP PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW. THE MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SNOW TO MELT, WHICH COULD AFFECT LOCAL ICY
RIVERS, CURRENTLY 3-6 INCHES THICK. THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK IS ESTIMATED AT 1.3 (AROUND THE PITTSBURGH
METRO REGION) TO 2.3 INCHES (AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH). ALONG
WITH SNOW MELT, SHOULD A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOP AND
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERING OF LOW STRATOCU DURING THE
MORNING HOURS
2) TROUGH PASSAGE AND MIXING REINFORCES LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
AS ANTICIPATED, A BREAK IN THE STRATOCU COVERAGE AND RETURN TO
VFR HAS ARRIVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH ALL SITES
SAVE ZZV/MGW NOW RESTRICTION FREE; THOSE TWO ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW SUIT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN
AREAWIDE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BKN MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH WITH EVENTUALLY A
60-80% CHANCE OF <3 KFT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES
FOR IFR CEILINGS REMAIN LOW AROUND 30% AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH LATEST PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED A
BIT FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO WILL MONITOR FURTHER
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND ENOUGH MOISTURE LIES WITHIN THE
DGZ BUT LENDING LITTLE RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY THEN
RELAXING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIDESPREAD
IFR AND SNOW RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 60-90
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH 2-3 INCH
PROBABILITIES FROM 30 TO 70 PERCENT (WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS WRN PA AND THE RIDGES). MVFR CIGS COULD
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW. VFR SHOULD RETURN
SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MLB
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