987
FXUS61 KPBZ 171815
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE SEEN IN LATE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION BELOW ON WEDNESDAY SEVERE
HAZARDS AND THE LATE WEEK SNOW OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC RAIN AMID ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL RAISE AREA
RIVERS AND DWINDLE SNOWPACK; NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
2) FALLING TEMPERATURE AND SNOW EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT VARIABILITY REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EASTERN CONUS RIDGING TODAY WILL SLOWLY WITHER AMID MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE PASSES WITHIN WARM, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST SUCH PASS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT TRACKING NORTH OF
THE AREA. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR LESS
THAN 0.25", BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO SEVERE RISK IN THE POST-
FRONTAL WARM ENVIRONMENT. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS WHERE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES, 200-500 J/KG SBCAPE, AND 50-60KTS SHEAR OVERLAP WITH
ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT FOR NORTHWEST PA. THIS REMAINS UNLIKELY, THOUGH,
GIVEN MEAGER LIFT/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO MAXIMIZE THOSE SEVERE
PARAMETERS.
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAIN SPREADS NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AN EXTENDED, LIFTING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY SURFACE LOW. A MID TO LATE DAY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY THEN LENDS TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURE AND DRY ADVECTION ENDING MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND 0.5-0.75 INCHES, WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING THE WV
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SEEING ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 1" (40-60%).
THOUGH VERY UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING, THE
COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN PLUS A MELTING SNOW PACK AND LOOSE
RIVER ICE KEEPS A RISK FOR RIVER ICE JAM DEVELOPMENTS ALONG WITH
LOCALALLY-INFLUENCED MINOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLE WEATHER MODELS FAVORS A PATTERN SHIFT
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD AS THE LAST IN
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES REPLACES THE EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGHING. THERE ARE
50-90% PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING BELOW 40
DEGREES BY SUNDAY (NEAR 100% BY MONDAY) WITH SIMILAR
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FALLING AT OR BELOW FREEZING
BY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING ON THIS WINTER SYSTEM PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME FRAME, BUT VARIABILITY
IN OUTCOMES (AND THUS IMPACTS) REMAIN VERY HIGH. THESE OUTCOMES
WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING/DEPTH OF THE PENDING UPPER
TROUGH PLUS THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, ALL OF
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE RAIN TO SNOW SWITCH OVER TIME AND
DURATION/INTENSITY OF SNOW. FOR EXAMPLE, SCENARIOS EXIST FOR
LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR FOR HIGH-END ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED TO JUST REMAIN AWARE OF THIS WINTER SYSTEM AND
MONITOR FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ITS TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS
BEFORE DETERMINING HOW IT MAY/MAY NOT IMPACT A GIVEN AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) RESTRICTIONS AT FKL/DUJ TO WIND DOWN OVER THE COMING HOURS
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FOR MANY UNTIL RAIN BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING
3) RAIN BRINGS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT 24HR TAF
PERIOD
------------------------------------------------------------
MARKED IMPROVEMENTS TO RESTRICTIONS AT FKL ARE ON THE DOORSTEP. DUJ
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IS NEARING THE EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS AND BOTH PORTS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR THEN LOOKS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL PORTS UNTIL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO LOWER AND RAIN APPROACHES ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME RAIN IN THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
NORTH AND THEN LESS SO AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS HAS BEEN
PORTRAYED WITH PREVAILING FOR FKL/DUJ, PROB30S ACROSS
BVI/PIT/AGC/LBE AND THEN NO MENTIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. CIGS
SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN FILTERS INTO MOST PORTS BY 15-
18Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WIND REMAINS LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW PICKING UP IN SPEED AND ALLOWING GUSTS BETWEEN 15-
20KTS.
OUTLOOK... A COUPLE OF GUSTIER SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SHOWERS LOOK TO WIND DOWN CLOSER TO 00Z
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING BR AND FG ISSUES POSSIBLE OVER MOIST GROUND.
THE AREA LOOKS TO RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...AK
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