525
FXUS61 KPBZ 181158
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
658 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE SEEN IN LATE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION BELOW ON WEDNESDAY SEVERE
HAZARDS AND THE LATE WEEK SNOW OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT SNOWPACK AND RAISE AREA RIVERS; NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT
EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
2) FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT VARIABILITY IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS
REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BRINGS GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS EVENING
MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE LATEST HREF SUGGESTS A
MEAN MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH, BACK ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR,
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AND MAY SERVE AS A LOCALIZED FOCUS FOR
WEAK ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THEREFORE, WOULDN'T BE
TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT VICINITY DURING A 7PM TO MIDNIGHT WINDOW.
THERE IS AMPLE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE (50+ KNOTS) FOR ORGANIZED
STORM MODES, BUT EVEN SO THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
INHIBIT ANY NOTABLE SEVERE THREATS. STILL, CAN'T RULE OUT A
VERY LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT IF ANY
DOWNDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE NOCTURNAL
SURFACE LAYER.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HI-RES
MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THAT FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WV AND POTENTIALLY UP TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR DURING LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ITSELF
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK AND MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT THIS
TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLAND AREA. THUS, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
A MID TO LATE DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY THEN BRINGS WEAK
COLD AND DRY ADVECTION, ENDING MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND 0.5-0.75 INCHES, WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING THE WV
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SEEING ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 1" (40-60%).
THOUGH VERY UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING, THE
COMBINATION OF THIS RAIN PLUS A MELTING SNOW PACK AND LOOSE
RIVER ICE KEEPS A RISK FOR RIVER ICE JAM DEVELOPMENTS ALONG WITH
LOCALALLY-INFLUENCED MINOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLE WEATHER MODELS FAVORS A PATTERN SHIFT
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD THE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS REPLACED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING. THERE ARE 50-90% PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND SIMILAR PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGHS FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING ON THIS WINTER SYSTEM PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THIS TIME FRAME, BUT VARIABILITY
IN OUTCOMES (AND THUS IMPACTS) REMAIN VERY HIGH. THESE OUTCOMES
WILL BE DICTATED BY THE TIMING/DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH, PLUS
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, ALL OF WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION AND THUS, THE
DURATION/INTENSITY OF SNOW. FOR EXAMPLE, SCENARIOS EXIST FOR
LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR FOR HIGH-END ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED TO JUST REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM,
AND TO MONITOR OUR FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ITS TRENDS
IN THE COMING DAYS ABOUT HOW IT MAY/MAY NOT IMPACT YOUR AREA.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE...
- RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING
- SCATTERING BACK TO VFR FOR MOST THIS EVENING
- RESTRICTIONS AGAIN RETURN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
STRATUS AND FOG
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE GRADUAL ASCENT AND MVFR IS EXPECTED WITH ONSET OF RAIN
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A 60-70% CHANCE FOR IFR BY 15-18Z AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES. RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FAVORED THROUGHOUT. WE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN MAKE AN
EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND CLEAR OUT OF OUR AREA BY
00Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND SCATTERS OUT CEILING
RESTRICTIONS.
THIS IMPROVEMENT MAY BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE RE-MANIFESTS AS EITHER A DECK OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG AND
A 60+% CHANCE OF MVFR RETURNS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY AT
ZZV. FOG APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WIND ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, AND DENSITY OF FOG WILL BE HIGHEST WHERE THE MOST
RAIN FALLS TODAY. ALSO CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE GET SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AS
SOME HI RES MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT AND SOME DON'T, SO HAVE LEFT
ANY MENTION OUT OF THE CURRENT TAFS, BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE AT FKL/DUJ.
WIND REMAINS VARIABLE THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN PICKS
UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUST
UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK... LINGERING BR AND FG ISSUES REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY
OVER MOIST GROUND. RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/FRAZIER
AVIATION...MLB
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