179
FXUS61 KPBZ 190734
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 9AM THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF WESTERN PA. UPDATE ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TOMORROW.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING.
2) ICE JAM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
3) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO.
4) SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR LAWRENCE,
BUTLER, ARMSTRONG, INDIANA, JEFFERSON, CLARION, FOREST, VENANGO,
AND MERCER COUNTIES. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST
PATCHY COVERAGE OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 0.25 MILES. FOG
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING, WITH CHANCES
FOR DENSE FOG PEAKING IN THE 5AM-7AM TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CAUSE RIVER ICE TO THAW AND BREAK UP ON MAIN
STREAM AND SMALLER TRIBUTARIES. AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT BENDS
("HOT SPOTS") SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS. WHILE RAINFALL
WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INCREASED WATER FLOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO WATER BACKUP NEAR ANY ICE
JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE
REGION TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
THUS, A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHERN WV TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY FORM, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH THIS FIRST ROUND.
LATER THIS EVENING, 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENS LOCALLY AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET ENCROACHES ON THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO
INCREASING CONVERGENCE OF WARM, MOIST AIR AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ, BRINGING A GREATER COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY
AFTER 9PM. AT THIS TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED THANKS TO A WARM NOSE AT
850MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL BE MEAGER, LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT POTENTIALLY
STILL SUPPORTING A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HOWEVER, IF
MOISTURE PROFILES END UP TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ABOVE THAT WARM
NOSE (AS A FEW CONVECTIVE MODELS SUGGEST), THEN EVAPORATIVE
COOLING COULD ACT TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE A NEAR-
STORM ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MAINLY SMALL HAIL (UP
TO QUARTER SIZE) IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS THIS IS MOST POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO, WHERE THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) IN THEIR LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE BEFORE DAWN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH RAIN
SHOWERS LINGER INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND WITH A
RIDGE AXIS ADVANCING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF
COOLER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS IS LOW AREA-WIDE (20-30%), MEANING
WINTER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCALIZED UPSLOPING OVER THE
WEST VIRGINIA RIDGES MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN ADVISORY.
PROBABILITY OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN TUCKER COUNTY IN 24 HOURS IS
40% AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- COMBINATION OF EITHER CLEARING SKIES OR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
FAVORS WIDESPREAD IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TONIGHT (FKL/DUJ) AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MOST TERMINALS)
------------------------------------------------------------
FR TO LIFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING PENDING
STRENGTH OF EITHER RADIATIONAL COOLING (ZZV/HLG/MGW) OR TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING (REST OF TERMINALS). TIMING AND DEGREE OF
RESTRICTION FALLS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY NEAR-BY RESIDUAL SNOW PACKS AND/OR LOCAL TERRAIN.
GRADUAL MIXING AMID DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY FAVORS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR AT AREA TERMINALS (60-90% PROBABILITY) BEFORE A
LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REINTRODUCES AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AMID SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS (FAVORING WV HIGHER
TERRAIN). LIGHTNING CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY TAF MENTION.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY, THOUGH MVFR MAY LINGER AT FKL/DUJ. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-077-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
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