650
FXUS61 KPBZ 191457
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, THOUGH PATCHY
LOW VIS MAY CONTINUE BRIEFLY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAMAGING WIND CHANCES TOMORROW ON A COLD
FRONT, CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
- A LOCALIZED FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR ICE JAM CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW. MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
2) ICE JAM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
4) SNOW CHANCES INCREASE INTO SUNDAY.
4) OUTLOOK FAVORS WARM AND WET TO END FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
THESE STORM CHANCES WILL COME IN THREE DISTINCT WAVES. THE FIRST
WAVE IS MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST PA. THE SECOND WILL PASS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
MOST LIKELY FOR OHIO AND WESTERN PA. THE THIRD WILL COME ON A
COLD FRONT LATE-FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY
FOR WESTERN PA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE A
MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IGNITION AND LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY OF IGNITION IS TIES TO INSTABILITY GENERATION.
MEDIAN SB/MU CAPE SHOWS NEAR-ZERO VALUES, WITH HREF ENSEMBLE
MAX SHOWING UP TO 200 J/KG POSSIBLE. IN ORDER TO ASCERTAIN ANY
IMPACTS, INSTABILITY >100 J/KG IS NEEDED WHICH IS ONLY 10%
LIKELY AT THIS POINT, AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW PREVALENT
CLOUD COVER THAT BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER,
IN THE 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT, HODOGRAPHS ARE THEORETICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL, SHALLOW SPINNING. BUT EVEN THEN, CLOUD
BASES ARE FAVORED >3KFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF A BRIEF SPIN UP.
INTO TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RIDE UP AND THROUGH THE
AREA, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
AND A LOW-TO-MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. GIVEN THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DECOUPLING, AND INTENSE UPDRAFTS BEING MOSTLY
SHEAR-DRIVEN, AND ANY LIMIT INSTABILITY BEING ELEVATED, THE MAIN
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL. THIS ROUND IS REPRESENTED
BY THE SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK. WHILE WIDESPREAD SMALL HAIL IS
MOST LIKELY, ACHIEVING LARGE HAIL >1" WILL BE RELIANT ON
MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND MATURE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE
CONCURRENTLY. SO, THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HIGHER
COVERAGES OF SMALL HAIL, BUT HAIL >1" CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE THIRD THREAT WILL COME ON A PASSING COLD FRONT TOMORROW. THIS
WILL BRING A LOW PROBABILITY OF INITIATION, BUT A CONDITIONAL
LOW-TO-MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MEAN 0-3KM MEAN WINDS OF 50KTS. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL AGAIN BE INSTABILITY. THERE REMAINS A 25%
CHANCE OF >100J/KG OF CAPE FOR NOW, BUT IN THE EVENT OF
CLEARING, WE MAY TOP THIS THRESHOLD. COMBINED WITH THE FORCING
FROM THE FRONT, THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST CONDITIONAL CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD UPDRAFTS INITIATE ON THE FRONT,
PRIMARILY TIED TO FAST STORM MOTION AND LINEAR MODE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THERMAL MELTING A BREAKUP OF ICE ALONG SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES, AND PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY AND YOUGHIOGHENY.
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY 0.5" TO 1.0" AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION DOWNSTREAM OF TODAY'S MIDWEST CONVECTION), SLIGHT RISES
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING OF RIVER ICE SHEETS.
AS ICE BREAKS FREE AND FLOWS DOWNSTREAM, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
JAMS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF JAMS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG REDBANK CREEK,
OIL CREEK, THE YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
ALLEGHENY RIVER. A LOCALIZED FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS MAY BE
NEEDED. CHANCES OF MOVEMENT DECREASE SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A DIGGING 500MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
WHILE CONSEQUENTLY INTERACTING WITH A PASSING SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION, WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE 500MB
TROUGH. SHOULD THIS TROUGH PASS THROUGH SLOWLY, CHANCES OF ANY
ADVISORY (>3") FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN IS ONLY 10% LIKELY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF THE TWO LOWS PHASING. THE MEDIAN, AND MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION, AS THE 500MB TROUGH PASSING AT MEDIUM PACE,
AND A RIDGE ADVISORY IS 25% LIKELY.
IN THE LOWEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO, WHERE THE 500MB TROUGH PASSES
FASTER AND CAUSES THE SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO RECURVE UP THE I-95
CORRIDOR, THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A 50% CHANCE OF AN ADVISORY
FOR THE RIDGES, AND A 10% CHANCE OF A WARNING (>6"), MOST LIKELY
FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
CHANCES OF AN ADVISORY SNOW FOR THE LOWLANDS ARE >20% IN ANY
SCENARIO. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH IMPACTS
MOSTLY LIMITED TO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING EACH DAY, KEEPING MOST OF THE ROADS SNOW-FREE. WITH LOSING
THE SUN AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
UNTREATED ROADS MAY SEE A COATING.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS WARM AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY 6 TO DAY 14 PERIOD. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY 26TH TO
FEBRUARY 27TH. THIS MAY ACT TO BREAK UP ANY ICE THAT REMAINS ON
AREA RIVERS. THOUGH, THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- COMBINATION OF EITHER CLEARING SKIES OR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
FAVORS WIDESPREAD IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TONIGHT (FKL/DUJ) AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MOST TERMINALS)
------------------------------------------------------------
FR TO LIFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING PENDING
STRENGTH OF EITHER RADIATIONAL COOLING (ZZV/HLG/MGW) OR TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING (REST OF TERMINALS). TIMING AND DEGREE OF
RESTRICTION FALLS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY NEAR-BY RESIDUAL SNOW PACKS AND/OR LOCAL TERRAIN.
GRADUAL MIXING AMID DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY FAVORS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR AT AREA TERMINALS (60-90% PROBABILITY) BEFORE A
LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REINTRODUCES AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AMID SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS (FAVORING WV HIGHER
TERRAIN). LIGHTNING CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY TAF MENTION.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY, THOUGH MVFR MAY LINGER AT FKL/DUJ. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
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