299
FXUS61 KPBZ 191704
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS INTO FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION
- AFTERNOON STORM/SEVERE CHANCES VERY LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW. MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
2) ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
4) SNOW CHANCES INCREASE INTO SUNDAY.
4) OUTLOOK FAVORS WARM AND WET TO END FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
THESE STORM CHANCES WILL COME IN THREE DISTINCT WAVES. THE FIRST
CHANCE IS MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST PA (THIS CHANCE HAS DECREASED). THE
SECOND WILL PASS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY FOR OHIO AND
WESTERN PA. THE THIRD WILL COME ON A COLD FRONT LATE-FRIDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY FOR WESTERN PA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE A
MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IGNITION AND VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY OF IGNITION IS TIES TO INSTABILITY
GENERATION. MEDIAN SB/MU CAPE SHOWS NEAR-ZERO VALUES, WITH HREF
ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWING UP TO 200 J/KG POSSIBLE. IN ORDER TO
ASCERTAIN ANY IMPACTS, INSTABILITY >100 J/KG IS NEEDED WHICH IS
ONLY 10% LIKELY AT THIS POINT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REFLECT
LOW-TO-NO INSTABILITY. PREVALENT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
INTO TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO RIDE UP AND THROUGH THE
AREA, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
AND A LOW-TO-MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. GIVEN THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DECOUPLING, AND INTENSE UPDRAFTS BEING MOSTLY
SHEAR-DRIVEN, AND ANY LIMIT INSTABILITY BEING ELEVATED, THE MAIN
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL. THIS ROUND IS REPRESENTED
BY THE SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK. WHILE WIDESPREAD SMALL HAIL IS
MOST LIKELY, ACHIEVING LARGE HAIL >1" WILL BE RELIANT ON
MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND MATURE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BOTH OF THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE
CONCURRENTLY. SO, THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF HIGHER
COVERAGES OF SMALL HAIL, BUT HAIL >1" CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE THIRD THREAT WILL COME ON A PASSING COLD FRONT TOMORROW. THIS
WILL BRING A LOW PROBABILITY OF INITIATION, BUT A CONDITIONAL
LOW-TO-MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MEAN 0-3KM MEAN WINDS OF 50KTS. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL AGAIN BE INSTABILITY. THERE REMAINS A 25%
CHANCE OF >100J/KG OF CAPE FOR NOW, BUT IN THE EVENT OF
CLEARING, WE MAY TOP THIS THRESHOLD. COMBINED WITH THE FORCING
FROM THE FRONT, THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST CONDITIONAL CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD UPDRAFTS INITIATE ON THE FRONT,
PRIMARILY TIED TO FAST STORM MOTION AND LINEAR MODE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A NUMBER OF COUNTIES BASED ON
GROUND TRUTH OBSERVATIONS OF ICY CREEKS AND RIVERS OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS, WARM CONDITIONS, AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0.5" TO 1.0" AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION DOWNSTREAM OF TODAY'S MIDWEST SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF JAMS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG REDBANK CREEK,
OIL CREEK, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER. IN THE
WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING, THE THREAT OF ICE
JAMS REDUCES SLIGHTLY DUE TO LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER, ICE JAMS ARE KNOWN TO BE UNPREDICTABLE AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE MONITORED UNTIL THE ICE EXITS THE REGION COMPLETELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A DIGGING 500MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
WHILE CONSEQUENTLY INTERACTING WITH A PASSING SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION, WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE 500MB
TROUGH. SHOULD THIS TROUGH PASS THROUGH SLOWLY, CHANCES OF ANY
ADVISORY (>3") FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN IS ONLY 10% LIKELY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF THE TWO LOWS PHASING. THE MEDIAN, AND MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION, AS THE 500MB TROUGH PASSING AT MEDIUM PACE,
AND A RIDGE ADVISORY IS 25% LIKELY.
IN THE LOWEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO, WHERE THE 500MB TROUGH PASSES
FASTER AND DEEPER, CAUSING THE SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO RE-CURVE
UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A 50% CHANCE OF AN
ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES, AND A 10% CHANCE OF A WARNING (>6"),
MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
CHANCES OF AN ADVISORY SNOW FOR THE LOWLANDS ARE >20% IN ANY
SCENARIO. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH IMPACTS
MOSTLY LIMITED TO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING EACH DAY, KEEPING MOST OF THE ROADS SNOW-FREE. WITH LOSING
THE SUN AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
UNTREATED ROADS MAY SEE A COATING.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS WARM AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY 6 TO DAY 14 PERIOD. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY 26TH TO
FEBRUARY 27TH. THIS MAY ACT TO BREAK UP ANY ICE THAT REMAINS ON
AREA RIVERS. THOUGH, THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM ADVECTION EARLY AFTERNOON
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH; EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VIS
WITH SHOWERS
- VFR AND GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT
------------------------------------------------------------
CIGS/VIS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON THE
RADAR IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY TRACK
THROUGH TERMINALS EAST OF ZZV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS WILL BE LOW.
A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR MORE PROMISING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VIS FROM 21Z TODAY THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. IF
A THUNDERSTORM DOES OCCUR OVERNIGHT, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF ZZV. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PUT PROLONG -TSRA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WITH THE
PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF PIT/AGC FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS; WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 20-30KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008-009-013>016-
022-073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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