932
FXUS61 KPBZ 200613
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.
- RELATIVELY LOW STORM/SEVERE CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW. MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
TONIGHT.
2) ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
4) SNOW CHANCES INCREASE INTO SUNDAY.
4) OUTLOOK FAVORS AN OVERALL WARM AND WET END TO FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
RIDE UP AND THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
INITIATION AND A LOW-TO-MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS. GIVEN
THE HIGH PROBABILITY ANY CONVECTION BEING ELEVATED, THE MAIN
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTIES. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SMALL HAIL IS MOST LIKELY, ACHIEVING LARGE HAIL >1"
WILL BE RELIANT ON MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND MATURE
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BOTH OF THESE WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE CONCURRENTLY. SO, THERE IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF HIGHER COVERAGES OF SMALL HAIL, BUT HAIL >1"
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT TOMORROW, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO BE AREAWIDE GUSTY
WINDS, AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER
30MPH AND UP TO A 45% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 40MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MEAN 0-3KM MEAN WINDS OF
50KTS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL AGAIN BE INSTABILITY. THERE
REMAINS A 25% CHANCE OF >100J/KG OF CAPE FOR NOW, BUT IN THE
EVENT OF CLEARING, WE MAY TOP THIS THRESHOLD. COMBINED WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE FRONT, THIS WOULD BRING THE HIGHEST CONDITIONAL
CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD UPDRAFTS INITIATE ON THE FRONT,
PRIMARILY TIED TO FAST STORM MOTION AND LINEAR MODE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A NUMBER OF COUNTIES BASED ON
GROUND TRUTH OBSERVATIONS OF ICY CREEKS AND RIVERS OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS, WARM CONDITIONS, AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR IN GENERAL HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 0.25"
AND 0.75", WITH ANOTHER 0.25" TO 0.50" POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF JAMS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG REDBANK CREEK,
OIL CREEK, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER. IN THE
WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING, THE THREAT OF ICE
JAMS REDUCES SLIGHTLY DUE TO LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER, ICE JAMS ARE KNOWN TO BE UNPREDICTABLE AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE MONITORED UNTIL THE ICE EXITS THE REGION COMPLETELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A DIGGING 500MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
WHILE CONSEQUENTLY INTERACTING WITH A PASSING SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION, WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE 500MB
TROUGH. SHOULD THIS TROUGH PASS THROUGH SLOWLY, CHANCES OF ANY
ADVISORY (>3") FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN IS ONLY 10% LIKELY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF THE TWO LOWS PHASING. THE MEDIAN, AND MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION, AS THE 500MB TROUGH PASSING AT MEDIUM PACE,
AND A RIDGE ADVISORY IS 25% LIKELY.
IN THE LOWEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO, WHERE THE 500MB TROUGH PASSES
FASTER AND DEEPER, CAUSING THE SOUTHERN TRACK LOW TO RE-CURVE
UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A 50% CHANCE OF AN
ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES, AND A 10% CHANCE OF A WARNING (>6"),
MOST LIKELY FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
CHANCES OF AN ADVISORY SNOW FOR THE LOWLANDS ARE >20% IN ANY
SCENARIO. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH IMPACTS
MOSTLY LIMITED TO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING EACH DAY, KEEPING MOST OF THE ROADS SNOW-FREE. WITH LOSING
THE SUN AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
UNTREATED ROADS MAY SEE A COATING.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS WARM AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY 6 TO DAY 14 PERIOD. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY 26TH TO
FEBRUARY 27TH. THIS MAY ACT TO BREAK UP ANY ICE THAT REMAINS ON
AREA RIVERS. THOUGH, THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IN RAIN OVERNIGHT; BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND
- VFR AND GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT
- MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT; LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH
OF I-80
------------------------------------------------------------
SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR CEILINGS
MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT LATE, ESPECIALLY AT FKL/DUJ.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS,
WITH COVERAGE OF THESE EXPECTED TO WANE BY 09Z/10Z. A BRIEF WIND
GUST IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER STORM.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AROUND MIDDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF PIT. VFR MAY THEN
RETURN FOR MOST PORTS SOUTH OF I-80 FOR THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME RISK FOR LINGERING IFR AT FKL/DUJ. WIND GUSTS WILL
CRANK UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SE TO WSW,
WITH PEAK VALUES OF UP TO 30 KNOTS.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AFTER 00Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 AFTER 00Z THAT MAY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008-009-013>016-022-
073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK/88
AVIATION...CL
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