493
FXUS61 KPBZ 201445
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY FROM 1P TO
MIDNIGHT TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
2) ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON .
3) INCREASING CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAVE
DECREASED, BUT REMAIN LOW-PROBABILITY, WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE AREAWIDE GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE A 50-80% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 30MPH,
AND NEAR 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 40MPH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GUSTIEST AREA, EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAM-RELATED RIVER FLOODING DUE TO WARM
CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH 1PM THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE BREAKUP AND
POTENTIAL JAMMING THROUGH THE DAY, HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES HAVE
REMAINED PROGRESSIVE AND ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF JAMS ARE ALONG REDBANK CREEK, OIL CREEK,
AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER. WANING PRECIPITATION
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SEE A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN ICE JAM RISK. HOWEVER, ICE JAMS ARE KNOWN TO BE
UNPREDICTABLE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MONITORED UNTIL THE ICE
EXITS THE REGION COMPLETELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL SNOW IS INCREASING LATE THIS WEEKEND FOR
THE PA/WV RIDGES. 06Z WPC WINTER STORM OUTLOOK GUIDANCE IS NOW
60-80% ABOVE 1500FT TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS (LACKING TERRAIN-
ENHANCED UPSLOPING) WILL BE LOWER.
A DIGGING 500MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, INTERACTING WITH A PASSING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PROGRESSION,
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE 500MB TROUGH.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION, WITH
THE HIGHER-END SCENARIO DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE GEFS AND THE
ENS/GEPS ON TRACK FOR A FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE.
SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND CONTINUES
EITHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY, DRIVING EFFICIENT
UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, LINGERINGS LONGEST ACROSS THE RIDGES.
PROBABILITIES FOR 6"+ IN THE RIDGES HAS INCREASED TO 50-80%
(HIGHEST IN E. TUCKER), THOUGH THE SPREAD REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE 25TH-75TH SPREAD
IS MUCH TIGHTER IN THE LOW LANDS (GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES), SO AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- GUSTY WIND TODAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
- VFR RETURNING W-E THIS MORNING
- MVFR RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM W-E THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RAPID PRESSURE
RISES AND MIXING IN THE CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY W-SW
WIND TODAY, UP TO 35 KT. MVFR SHOULD RETURN FOR AIRPORTS NORTH
OF A ZZV TO LBE LINE IN COLD ADVECTION, AND WITH MOISTURE BELOW
A TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK CROSSING
SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT FKL
AND DUJ AS WELL. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A CROSSING UPPER LOW. PROBABILITIES FAVOR A 1-3
INCH SNOWFALL OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008-009-
013>016-022-073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/MILCAREK
AVIATION...WM
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