693
FXUS61 KPBZ 202138
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
438 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1AM SUNDAY TO 1AM TUESDAY
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH EXTENDED-DURATION UPSLOPE SNOW.
- FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ICE-JAM AREAS
THROUGH 9AM SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
2) ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW.
3) WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR HIGH TERRAIN. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW TOTALS ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AREAWIDE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS HAVE STARTED TO PEAK IN THE MOSTLY
30MPH TO 40MPH RANGE AREAWIDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTRIBUTING TO ADIABATIC PROFILES AND MIXING AHEAD
OF, ALONG, AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME MORE WINDS
SPOTS AT AREA ASOS HAVE TOPPED 45MPH TO 50MPH, THROUGH BECAUSE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF OBSERVATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED,
OPTED TO NOT EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY AT THE AFTERNOON UPDATE
GIVEN AREAWIDE AVERAGE WINDS ARE LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.
CONVECTION IS ABSENT ON THE COLD FRONT, SO THIS WILL MINIMIZED
HIGH END DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
TUCKER REMAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO CALM AFTER SUNSET WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL THROUGH AND A
RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR CERTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO PERSISTENT ICE JAM PROBLEMS IN THE UPPER
ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN.
CURRENT SITUATION: AS OF THIS MORNING, AN ICE JAM WAS CONFIRMED NEAR
EMLENTON, PA AND FOXBURG, PA. MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE JAM; FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 4PM TODAY.
ONGOING MONITORING: DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND HIGH STREAM
LEVELS FROM RECENT RAINFALL, CONTINUOUS MONITORING FOR NEW ICE
JAMS DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
AREAS OF CONCERN INCLUDE EAST BRADY, TEMPLETON, AND REEDSDALE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF A DIGGING 500MB TROUGH AND
RECURVING MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL BRING AREA-WIDE SNOW
CHANCES TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HERES WHAT WE KNOW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE: ACCUMULATING, IMPACTFUL SNOW FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. IRRESPECTIVE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACK, THE DIGGING 500MB TROUGH, STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND RIDGETOPS TEMPS
AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE EVENT. THERE WAS A >50% OF >6"
OF SNOW FOR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. NOTE: TOTALS
MAY VARY GREATLY FROM RIDGETOP TO VALLEY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE: ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS. DUE TO A
NUMBER OF FACTORS, SNOW RATIOS IN MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
OVERESTIMATE REALITY, PIRATICALLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY
(DURING THE PEAK ACCUMULATION WINDOW). THIS IS RELATED TO A
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW RATIOS IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER, AND
RATIOS UPON CONTACT WITH THE WARM SURFACE. WITH THE NBM 10TH TO
90TH MAX T SPREAD BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND LOW 40S, THIS SPANS
EVERYTHING FROM A WETTER SNOW TO EVEN PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
VALLEYS. TO DOWNTREND NBM RATIOS, KEPT 10:1 MEAN ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE EVENT. EVEN WITH A MOST LIKELY FORECAST OF 1" TO 3",
TOTALS MAY TREND LOWER IF SNOW IS LIGHTER AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMER. MOST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FAVORED ON GRASSY SURFACES, WITH
CHANCES OF ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS INCREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
LOW CONFIDENCE: SNOW TOTALS MAY TREND HIGHER IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC LOW CURVES INLAND AS A NOR- EASTER (THOUGH MOST OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS EAST OF PITTSBURGH). THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
(80% CHANCE) IS THAT THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW INFLUENCE STAYS SOUTH
AND HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA SNOW TOTALS. IN THE LOW
PROBABILITY EVENT THAT THIS TRENDS WEST, BIG SNOWS REMAIN
POSSIBLE EAST OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN (LONG,
HIGH-END TAIL ON THE SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION). IN THE PREFECT
SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW TRENDS WEST AND A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
FORMS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, UP TO 6 TO 10" IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS EAST OF PITTSBURGH, WITH UP
TO 15" TO 20" FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. AGAIN, THIS IS A LOW-
PROBABILITY BUT HIGH-IMPACT SCENARIO THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- GUSTY WINDS, LESSENING THIS EVENING
- MVFR RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
GUSTY NW WINDS (GUSTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 35KTS AND 45KTS) WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN THIS
EVENING FROM NW TO SE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 60% CHANCE OF MVFR AT KPIT
INCREASING TO 100% TO THE NORTH AT KFKL/KDUJ THIS EVENING. ANY
IFR SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CONSOLIDATED TO KFKL/KDUJ (50-70%
PROBABILITY) WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S IN THE LATEST
TAFS FOR KFKL/KDUJ THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A CROSSING UPPER LOW. PROBABILITIES FAVOR A 1-3
INCH SNOWFALL OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ008-014>016-022.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ510>514.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK
AVIATION...88
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