569
FXUS61 KPBZ 211836
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INDIANA COUNTY WAS ADDED. IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE WARNING, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. STILL
MONITORING RIVER ICE SOUTH OF RIMER ON THE ALLEGHENY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-WINTER STORM WARNING AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
2) MONITORING RIVER LEVELS AND ICE DOWNSTREAM OF RIMER ON THE
ALLEGHENY
3) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AT
THE SAME TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND ASCENT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH.
BY SUNDAY, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND NW OF THE LOW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
PA. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS AXIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW, SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS
AREA. BACK TO THE WEST, A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO
PORTIONS OF NW PA.
CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF PA AND WV, WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS,
AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED. IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST, ADDED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOW IS
LIKELY.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AS WELL.
EXPECT A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE RIDGES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I 80 IN NW FLOW, THOUGH LAKE
SURFACE-850MB DELTA T IS MARGINAL FOR THIS. OVERALL, EXPECT 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, 2-5 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA, AND 6 TO 12 IN THE WARNING. THE SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS FURTHER
EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME ICE HAS MOVED AND JAMMED IN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BETWEEN
RIMER AND MOSGROVE. SOME CAMPGROUNDS ALONG THE RIVER BANK HAVE
FLOODED. UPSTREAM GAUGES INDICATE THE ICE MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING/SHIFTING, AND THIS COULD CREATE AN INCREASE IN FLOODING
ALONG THE RIVER. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY, A MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE NE CONUS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- A FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL LINGER OVER FKL/DUJ
- DETERIORATION TO IFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW
------------------------------------------------------------
CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE TERMINALS AT FKL AND DUJ WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE
VFR UNTIL ONSET OF THE SNOW TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND ANY CLEARING
OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD RESULT
IN SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A
DETERIORATION TO IFR. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE RIDGES, WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
(FROM A MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC) IS
PROGGED TO SET UP. GENERALLY EXPECT A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
CROSSING UPPER LOW, AND SUBSEQUENT COLD NW FLOW OFF OF THE GREAT
LAKES. VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ016-073-075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM/SHALLENBERGER
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