644
FXUS61 KPBZ 212344
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
644 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INDIANA COUNTY WAS ADDED. IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE WARNING, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. STILL
MONITORING RIVER ICE SOUTH OF RIMER ON THE ALLEGHENY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-WINTER STORM WARNING AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
2) MONITORING RIVER LEVELS AND ICE DOWNSTREAM OF RIMER ON THE
ALLEGHENY
3) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AT
THE SAME TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND ASCENT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH.
BY SUNDAY, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND NW OF THE LOW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
PA. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS AXIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW, SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS
AREA. BACK TO THE WEST, A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO
PORTIONS OF NW PA.
CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF PA AND WV, WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS,
AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED. IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST, ADDED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOW IS
LIKELY.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AS WELL.
EXPECT A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE RIDGES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I 80 IN NW FLOW, THOUGH LAKE
SURFACE-850MB DELTA T IS MARGINAL FOR THIS. OVERALL, EXPECT 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, 2-5 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA, AND 6 TO 12 IN THE WARNING. THE SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS FURTHER
EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME ICE HAS MOVED AND JAMMED IN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BETWEEN
RIMER AND MOSGROVE. SOME CAMPGROUNDS ALONG THE RIVER BANK HAVE
FLOODED. UPSTREAM GAUGES INDICATE THE ICE MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING/SHIFTING, AND THIS COULD CREATE AN INCREASE IN FLOODING
ALONG THE RIVER. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY, A MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE NE CONUS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- LOW STRATUS MAINTAINS MVFR FOR FKL/DUJ THIS EVENING
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BRINGING
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTIONS
- MORE SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION TO IFR AS SNOW FILLS IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
A DECK OF LOW STRATUS STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAINTAINING MVFR CIGS FOR FKL/DUJ. ELSEWHERE,
A BATCH OF VFR HIGH CLOUDS IS STREAMING OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH WEAK JET SUPPORT. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND CMH/PIT ACARS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR
THAT THERE'S NOT MUCH BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE SAVE SOME
MOSTLY VFR LIGHT SNOW. DO THINK THAT AS WE SATURATE AFTER
SUNSET, SOME OF THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS, SO
HAVE TEMPO'D IN SUCH RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE 00Z
TAF START TIME. WIND WILL RELAX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GOING
LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS THE BOARD.
THE DEEPER WAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH QUICK DETERIORATION
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 03Z TO MVFR AND ULTIMATELY IFR IN SNOW. LBE
AND DUJ ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE LOWEST OF THE VISIBILITY WITH
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING LOCALLY FROM THE EAST. IFR CIGS SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW-END MVFR IS MORE FAVORED BY
GLAMP AND HI RES GUIDANCE WHILE SNOW CONTINUES. GENERALLY EXPECT
A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REASONABLE
WORST CASE ONE HOUR SNOWFALL RATES REACH ABOUT TO 0.3"/HR
OUTSIDE OF DUJ/LBE WHERE 0.5-0.75"/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVEMENT FOR ALL BUT LBE/DUJ WHICH ARE
STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DETERIORATED IN SNOW. AS LOCALIZED
TROUGHING CONTINUES AND LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS BY, EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, PERHAPS A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL LOW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ016-073-075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...MLB
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