207
FXUS61 KPBZ 221334 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
834 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS INCLUDED ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. FORECAST
NOW INCLUDES TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH COULD REACH
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH OF US-422. STILL MONITORING RIVER ICE
SOUTH OF RIMER ON THE ALLEGHENY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CONTINUES AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN MOST LOWLAND AREAS, SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS FORECAST FOR THE
RIDGES. WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA
2) MONITORING RIVER LEVELS AND ICE DOWNSTREAM OF RIMER ON THE
ALLEGHENY
3) ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON, WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVERALL EXPECTATIONS THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN GENERALLY ON TRACK.
THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE PRECEDES A MUCH LARGER AND DEEPER TROUGH,
WHICH WILL DIG FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVES OFFSHORE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV.
ASSOCIATED 700MB/850MB FRONTOGENESIS LINGERS IN THIS REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THE UPSLOPE LIFT COMPONENT INCREASES
LATER TODAY AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO BE HEAVIER AND MORE
PERSISTENT THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE STORM, SUPPORTING HIGHER SLR AND LESS MELTING.
LOWLAND AREAS, AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT TAPERS, SHOULD SEE
SPOTTIER ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
TONIGHT AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATES THROUGH WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS. WITHOUT THE DYNAMIC AND UPSLOPE SUPPORT TO THE
EAST, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S, SNOW
TOTALS HERE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY, TOTALING AN INCH OR
LESS. THAT SAID, SOME HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED,
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM PITTSBURGH WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SUCH SHOWER COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK ACCUMULATION
OF A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH.
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST
AND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST.
FOR OUR REGION, ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IN THE RIDGES. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS
ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH,
WHICH COULD CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THIS SMALL AREA
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. ALSO, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF I-80 WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -9C OR SO, SURFACE/850MB
DELTA-T VALUES OVER LAKE ERIE ARE NOT IDEAL. SNOW WILL FINALLY
TAPER IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING HEADLINES. WHEN ALL IS SAID AN
DONE, MOST AREAS WEST OF THE RIDGES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 1-2
INCH RANGE FOR THE EVENT, PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN SPOTS IF THE
AFTERNOON HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE REALIZED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATION.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 6-12 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS, WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES POTENTIALLY SEEING EVEN
MORE...15-18 INCHES ON THE PEAKS IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ICE REMAINS JAMMED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY RIVER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA OF RIMER AND MOSGROVE. SOME CAMPGROUNDS
ALONG THE RIVER BANK FLOODED ON SATURDAY. WHILE UPSTREAM GAUGES
ARE MOSTLY FALLING, THE PRESENCE OF THE ICE WARRANTS CONTINUED
MONITORING. NO FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS
TIME, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE SITUATION AND
TAKE ACTION IF ICE JAM FLOODING BECOMES MORE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A BRIEF DRY BREAK ON TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW AND MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION-
SUPPORTED SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, WITH ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND ALONG THE RIDGES. ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF US-422, AND THIS POSSIBILITY WAS
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, RISING
TO AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
AROUND THURSDAY MAY PRESENT A WINTRY MIX BEFORE DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- LOW CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RETURN AND COULD TURN MORE CONVECTIVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
SNOW IS STILL CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND LOW VIS IN THE LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAKE A
SHOWERY APPEARANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
CIGS AND VIS LOWER AS SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN
LATER IN THE MORNING. BY MID-AFTERNOON, MIXING MAY LEAD TO SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS ONCE AGAIN. CAMS HAVE A RATHER
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THEM THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY HINTING AT A
WIDESPREAD MVFR SNOW WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR CONTAINED IN QUICK
HITTING HEAVIER CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
LOOKS TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE HEATING.
SNOW WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND CIGS WILL BE LOWER THE CLOSER
YOU ARE TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AS SUCH, LBE AND DUJ FIND
THEMSELVES WITH THE MOST PESSIMISTIC TAFS OVER THE CURRENT
PERIOD.
GENERALLY EXPECT A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. REASONABLE WORST CASE ONE HOUR SNOWFALL RATES REACH
ABOUT TO 0.3"/HR OUTSIDE OF DUJ/LBE WHERE 0.5-0.75"/HR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVEMENT FOR ALL BUT LBE/DUJ WHICH ARE
STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DETERIORATED IN SNOW. AS LOCALIZED
TROUGHING CONTINUES AND LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS BY, EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, PERHAPS A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL LOW.
OUTLOOK... VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-073-
075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>513.
DISCUSSION...WM/CL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
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