479
FXUS61 KPBZ 221759
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1259 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OR WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NORTH OF ROUTE 422 IN PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
3) MILD WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WAS JUST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST, WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NW THROUGH
CENTRAL PA TO LAKE ERIE. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
HAS BEEN LIGHT AND PARTIALLY MELTING AS IT FALLS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH SOME DRYING OCCURING IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER, AND WITH
A LACK OF JET SUPPORTED ASCENT.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW, STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION, AND A CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY, WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
DISSIPATING. COLD NW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW, THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS, WITH A GENERAL 6-12
INCHES STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA,
THROUGH IN WV MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF A MORGANTOWN TO
FAIRMONT LINE TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THOSE COUNTIES. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV, WHERE GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. JET ENHANCED ASCENT IN WARM
ADVECTION COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE REGION, WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS (2-5 INCHES) POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROUTE 422 CORRIDOR IN WRN PA. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY FOLLOW AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO NRN NY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION WEDNESDAY,
APPROACHING/CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, WITH ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION, TO RESULT IN MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- LOW CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RETURN AND COULD TURN MORE CONVECTIVE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
SNOW IS STILL CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND LOW VIS IN THE LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAKE A
SHOWERY APPEARANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
CIGS AND VIS LOWER AS SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN
LATER IN THE MORNING. BY MID-AFTERNOON, MIXING MAY LEAD TO SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS ONCE AGAIN. CAMS HAVE A RATHER
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THEM THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY HINTING AT A
WIDESPREAD MVFR SNOW WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR CONTAINED IN QUICK
HITTING HEAVIER CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
LOOKS TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE HEATING.
SNOW WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND CIGS WILL BE LOWER THE CLOSER
YOU ARE TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AS SUCH, LBE AND DUJ FIND
THEMSELVES WITH THE MOST PESSIMISTIC TAFS OVER THE CURRENT
PERIOD.
GENERALLY EXPECT A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. REASONABLE WORST CASE ONE HOUR SNOWFALL RATES REACH
ABOUT TO 0.3"/HR OUTSIDE OF DUJ/LBE WHERE 0.5-0.75"/HR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVEMENT FOR ALL BUT LBE/DUJ WHICH ARE
STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DETERIORATED IN SNOW. AS LOCALIZED
TROUGHING CONTINUES AND LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS BY, EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, PERHAPS A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL LOW.
OUTLOOK... VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-073-
075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
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