415
FXUS61 KPBZ 230003
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OR WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NORTH OF ROUTE 422 IN PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
3) MILD WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WAS JUST OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST, WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NW THROUGH
CENTRAL PA TO LAKE ERIE. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
HAS BEEN LIGHT AND PARTIALLY MELTING AS IT FALLS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH SOME DRYING OCCURING IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER, AND WITH
A LACK OF JET SUPPORTED ASCENT.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW, STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION, AND A CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY, WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
DISSIPATING. COLD NW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW, THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS, WITH A GENERAL 6-12
INCHES STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA,
THROUGH IN WV MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF A MORGANTOWN TO
FAIRMONT LINE TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THOSE COUNTIES. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV, WHERE GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. JET ENHANCED ASCENT IN WARM
ADVECTION COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE REGION, WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS (2-5 INCHES) POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROUTE 422 CORRIDOR IN WRN PA. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY FOLLOW AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO NRN NY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION WEDNESDAY,
APPROACHING/CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, WITH ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION, TO RESULT IN MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
DETERIORATING AFTER MIDNIGHT
- WIND GUSTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PEAK ON MONDAY AT 20-30
KNOTS
- INVERTED TROUGH PASSAGE MAY INTRODUCE MORE SNOW CHANCES EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON
------------------------------------------------------------
THE CORE OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FORCING
LOCALLY HAS DECREASED WITH PROXIMITY BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL LOW
AND RESULTED IN A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES
TO OUR EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TO THE WEST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW RESIDES.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PRIMARILY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, THE SCATTERED NATURE WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF VFR
INTERRUPTED BY TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, AS BOTH LOWS MEANDER EAST,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN PULLING
IN LAKE MOISTURE WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LOW-END MVFR FAVORED, THOUGH THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE (HIGHEST FOR FKL/DUJ/LBE) OF IFR. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS WITH LOWER VIS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE, INTRUDING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING
PARTLY INTO THE DGZ SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN MORE RESTRICTIVE IMPACTS TO SPECIFIC
TERMINALS AND CONDITIONS OVERALL IS LOW TO MODERATE, BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR TEMPORARY DEGRADATION TO IFR IS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR ZZV/MGW. WIND WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 KNOTS.
WITH SUNRISE MONDAY, WIND GUSTS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER PART OF THE
DGZ MAY SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, IMPACTING
FKL/DUJ AFTER 12Z, TO PIT BY ~15Z, AND MGW BY ~18Z. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE SNOW IS IS LOW, SO HAVE KEPT PROB30 GROUPS TO
ADDRESS THIS.
OUTLOOK... VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-073-
075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/88
AVIATION...MLB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page