899
FXUS61 KPBZ 230304
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1004 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OR WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NORTH OF ROUTE 422 IN PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
3) MILD WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES UP OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH FORCING LARGELY LIMITED TO JUST THE
OVERHEAD LOW, EXPECT JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INCREASE COVERAGE
AND ACCUMULATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES, SNOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
IN THE RIDGES, OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SNOW
RATES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME LESS DEEP, RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN RATES.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WARNING AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. (LOCALIZED HIGHER
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE) TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA, THROUGH IN WV MOST OF THIS SHOULD
BE EAST OF A MORGANTOWN TO FAIRMONT LINE TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THOSE COUNTIES. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV, WHERE GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. JET ENHANCED ASCENT IN WARM
ADVECTION COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE REGION, WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS (2-5 INCHES) POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROUTE 422 CORRIDOR IN WRN PA. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY FOLLOW AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO NRN NY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION WEDNESDAY,
APPROACHING/CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, WITH ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION, TO RESULT IN MOSTLY
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
DETERIORATING AFTER MIDNIGHT
- WIND GUSTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PEAK ON MONDAY AT 20-30
KNOTS
- INVERTED TROUGH PASSAGE MAY INTRODUCE MORE SNOW CHANCES EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON
------------------------------------------------------------
THE CORE OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FORCING
LOCALLY HAS DECREASED WITH PROXIMITY BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL LOW
AND RESULTED IN A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES
TO OUR EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TO THE WEST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW RESIDES.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PRIMARILY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, THE SCATTERED NATURE WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF VFR
INTERRUPTED BY TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, AS BOTH LOWS MEANDER EAST,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN PULLING
IN LAKE MOISTURE WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LOW-END MVFR FAVORED, THOUGH THERE IS A 40-60%
CHANCE (HIGHEST FOR FKL/DUJ/LBE) OF IFR. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS WITH LOWER VIS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE, INTRUDING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING
PARTLY INTO THE DGZ SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN MORE RESTRICTIVE IMPACTS TO SPECIFIC
TERMINALS AND CONDITIONS OVERALL IS LOW TO MODERATE, BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR TEMPORARY DEGRADATION TO IFR IS HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR ZZV/MGW. WIND WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 KNOTS.
WITH SUNRISE MONDAY, WIND GUSTS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-30 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER PART OF THE
DGZ MAY SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, IMPACTING
FKL/DUJ AFTER 12Z, TO PIT BY ~15Z, AND MGW BY ~18Z. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE SNOW IS IS LOW, SO HAVE KEPT PROB30 GROUPS TO
ADDRESS THIS.
OUTLOOK... VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-073-
075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/88
AVIATION...MLB
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