987
FXUS61 KPBZ 230625
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED TO COVER SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF US-422 IN WESTERN PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY IN THE LOWLANDS AND THROUGH
MONDAY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
3) MILD WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME
HELPING CONTINUE THE RATHER CONVECTIVE LOOK THESE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE ON RADAR. AT THIS TIME WE FIND OURSELVES IN BETWEEN TWO
ENHANCED LOBES OF 700MB MOISTURE, ONE FEEDING THE MORE
STRATIFORM SNOW TO THE WEST AND THE OTHER FEEDING STRATIFORM
SNOW INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE STORM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER THE LIMITED FORCING OF THE UPPER LOW,
TOTALING PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES. INCREASED
FORCING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDS CONTINUED AND HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW ACROSS THE PA/WV RIDGES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES, SNOW REMAINS SCATTERED
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT BEFORE TAPERING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
OF MONDAY.
A HEAVIER SNOW CONTINUES IN THE RIDGES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE DGZ. THIS LEADS TO ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, WHERE RATES CAN BE AS
HIGH AS 1 INCH/HOUR. THIS PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW LASTS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FINALLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE RIDGES, SNOW AT A LIGHTER CLIP LIKELY LASTS
INTO MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRIOR WINTER STORM WARNING OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES IS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WHILE A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA, FAVORING THOSE
EASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE COASTAL LOW, GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AND CAN LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ONGOING
AND FALLEN SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY IS QUICKLY CHASED AWAY BY
A SHORTWAVE CRASHING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE AN ACCOMPANYING LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SERIES OF FRONTS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND RATHER STOUT MID-LEVEL WAA LOOK TO BRING A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2-4
INCHES LOOK MOST LIKELY NORTH OF US- 422. FURTHER SOUTH,
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CUT INTO AND FOCUS
ACCUMULATIONS MORE SO ONTO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY, ENDING SNOWFALL AND USHERING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND ROUNDS ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT BUT A TRACK DIRECTLY
OVER (MIXED PRECIPITATION) OR EVEN NORTH OF PITTSBURGH (MAINLY
RAIN) SEEMS TO BE FAVORED OVER ANY SNOWIER SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS.
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING FORECAST TRENDS BUT AT THIS
TIME, WITH A MIX OR MOSTLY RAIN FAVORED, THE PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
- WIND GUSTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PEAK ON MONDAY AT 20-30
KNOTS
- INVERTED TROUGH PASSAGE MAY INTRODUCE MORE SNOW CHANCES EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON
------------------------------------------------------------
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A POWERFUL SURFACE LOW,
CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT. OUR FLOW
LOCALLY HAS TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST, WHICH IS INTRODUCING MORE
MOISTURE VIA A LAKE ERIE FETCH. THIS HAS ALREADY DROPPED MOST
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE, WHERE THEY WILL STAY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT FKL, DUJ, AND
LBE, WITH 70-90% PROBABILITY ON THE HREF. BRIEF DROPS TO THAT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT OTHER SITES AS WELL. LOBES OF VORTICITY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IMPROVING DGZ MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, INITIALLY MOST LIKELY AT BVI,
PIT, AGC, AND MGW GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. THESE MAY BRIEFLY PROVIDE
IFR VISIBILITY, BUT VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART.
NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE MONDAY, WITH DAYTIME MIXING
PUSHING GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT AS NOTED BY
PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE PASSAGE OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WILL INTRODUCE LOW-
PROBABILITY CHANCES FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IN STOUTER SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER SUNSET, WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WANE, AS WELL SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY COVERAGE, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER AS
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
OUTLOOK... VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-073-
075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CL
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