357
FXUS61 KPBZ 240135
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
835 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
3) MILD WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONTINUED COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. LIMITED ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES WHERE ANOTHER TWO TO FOUR
INCHES COULD FALL WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ENHANCES RATES. ONE INCH
PER HOUR RATES ARE STILL BEING REPORTED OUT OF THE WV RIDGES,
BUT WOULD EXPECT THESE RATES TO DROP OVER THE COMING HOURS AS
THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECREASES. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IT BECAUSE EVEN WITH THAT, COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH THE SHALLOWER BL ALMOST COMPLETELY WITHIN THE DGZ. NO
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 06Z. BOTH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED THOUGH.
HI-RES MODELS HAVE HINTED ON A LAKE HURON LINK TONIGHT, WHICH
COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
COULD POSSIBLY PUSH TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NEEDED THRESHOLD
OF 6 INCHES IN THE INDIANA, WESTMO, AND FAYETTE RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY IS QUICKLY CHASED AWAY BY
A SHORTWAVE CRASHING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE AN ACCOMPANYING LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SERIES OF FRONTS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND RATHER STOUT MID-LEVEL WAA LOOK TO BRING A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE LATEST RUN, IS
THAT THE TROUGH HAS TAKEN A BIT NORTH IN THE TRACK AND THAT HAS
SHAVED AN INCH OR TWO OFF THE TOTALS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS BECAUSE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE IN THESE AREAS FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA
IS NEAR 60% TO 75%. SO THIS WILL NEED MONITORING AS THE WARMING
ROAD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL CHANGE IN TRACK MIGHT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THESE TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A THIRD UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST AND ROUNDS ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
A DEEPENING LOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES THIS FAR OUT BUT A TRACK DIRECTLY
OVER (MIXED PRECIPITATION) OR EVEN NORTH OF PITTSBURGH (MAINLY
RAIN) SEEMS TO BE FAVORED OVER ANY SNOWIER SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS.
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING FORECAST TRENDS BUT AT THIS
TIME, WITH A MIX OR MOSTLY RAIN FAVORED, THE PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LOW.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN SNOW TONIGHT
- MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE VFR RETURNS BY
AFTERNOON
------------------------------------------------------------
COLD NW FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A CROSSING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW NARROW ENHANCED SNOW BANDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS, MOISTURE DECREASES
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.
GUSTY NW WIND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE AND A BACKING WIND RETURN THE AREA TO VFR
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETURN RAIN/SNOW AND RESTRICTION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...WM
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