626
FXUS61 KPBZ 241159
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
659 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF A COATING TO AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE PA/WV
RIDGES FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN TUESDAY
MORNING
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
3) MILD WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND INTO THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE PA/WV RIDGES. WE
FIND OURSELVES DOWNWIND OF TWO SEPARATE SOURCE REGIONS FOR LAKE
MOISTURE. ONE IN WESTERN LAKE ERIE WITH MARGINAL DELTA T BETWEEN
THE SFC AND 850 AND ANOTHER MUCH MORE ACTIVE SOURCE IN CENTRAL
LAKE HURON. BOUNDARY LAYER AND DGZ RH REMAINS RATHER HIGH AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE NEAR SUNRISE, MOISTURE IN THE DGZ BEGINS
TO FLEET AND WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AT THE SFC CUTTING OFF OUR
LAKE AND UPSLOPE CONNECTIONS SLOWLY BRINGING AND END TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS.
WITH LINGERING NUISANCE SHOWERS SLOWLY LOSING INTENSITY,
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WE HAVE ALLOWED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. STILL, IN THE RIDGES, AREAS
CAN SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH (OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS)
THROUGH SUNRISE. IN THE LOWLANDS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY LEAVE
ONLY A COATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER HAS A BRIEF STAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES PAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS QUICKLY CHASED OUT BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ACCOMPANYING LOW
SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO, PUSHING A SERIES OF FRONTS
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES IN THE FORM OF THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. THIS PAIRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND STOUT MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SPUR SNOW
BREAKING OUT NORTH OF US-422 TUESDAY EVENING AND EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RATHER MARGINAL IN THE LOWLANDS SOUTH
OF US-422 FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR TO BEGIN AND THROUGHOUT THE EVENT IS
MUCH MORE EASILY FOUND NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES. AS SUCH
SLRS RISE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SW OF PITTSBURGH TO THE
LOW TEENS NORTH OF I-80 AND DOWN THE RIDGES. WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS, SLOPPY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO FAVOR ELEVATED AND NON-PAVED SURFACES.
THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A RATHER QUICK BURST, WITH MOST OF THE
SNOW FALLING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN 00-12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MIXED WITH RAIN AFTER 12Z. AS SNOW BEGINS
TO WIND DOWN ALONG I-80, MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION IN THE CLOUD LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
MINUS 10C. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH ACT AGAINST
THIS SEEMINGLY LIMITED THREAT.
BETWEEN 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80
AND DOWN THE RIDGES. IN THE LOWLANDS TOTALS CLIMB FROM LESS THAN
INCH IN OHIO TO AROUND 2-3 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG
US-422. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 9PM
TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL 1PM WEDNESDAY TO COVER THIS THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVE BUILDS THROUGH THE FLOW AND
ROUNDS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED BETWEEN OUR PREVIOUS LOW AND A
DEVELOPING COLORADO LOW. A NOTICEABLE SOUTHERN SHIFT HAS BEEN
NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
DUE TO MODELING CHANGING ITS MIND ON WHICH IS THE DOMINANT LOW.
THE EVENTUAL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION STILL HOLDS THE FINAL SAY
IN EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE SEEN BUT AT THIS TIME, A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY. THAT SAID, THE
SOUTHERN SHIFT IN TRACK WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION THAN THE PREVIOUSLY FAVORED MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES SHOW VARYING DIFFERENT PICTURES OF EVENTUAL
SNOW TOTALS BUT THE ONE CONSTANT IS THE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO LOW PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN SNOW THIS MORNING.
- MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- RESTRICTIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT.
------------------------------------------------------------
THE WIND HAS SHIFTED MORE OUT OF THE WEST WHICH SHOULD CUT-OFF THE
MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE LAKES. COMBINED WITH LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE SNOW BAND
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME BEFORE THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND BACKING LOW-LEVEL WIND WILL AID IN LIFTING AND
SCATTERING THOSE CEILINGS BY MIDDAY (HREF MVFR PROBS DROP BELOW
50% FOR MOST BY 18Z).
VFR WILL THEN BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHWEST WIND KICKS UP AFTER 00Z AS WELL THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS/IFR
VISIBILITY. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THESE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS BY 09Z.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETURN
RAIN/SNOW AND COULD RETURN RESTRICTION CHANCES ON THURSDAY. VFR IS
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CL/LUPO
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