528
FXUS61 KPBZ 271830
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. LARGE- SCALE PATTERN SHIFT OPENS THE DOOR TO HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID- WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALBERTA CLIPPER EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) PROBABILITIES DECREASING FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS MONDAY
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO REACH EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH AMOUNTS, NOW SHOWING A 15% TO 25%
CHANCE OF AN INCH NORTH OF PGH, AND A 5% TO 15% CHANCE OF TWO
INCHES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER. WHILE MODELS STILL AGREE A SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE AREA MONDAY, THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. LIKEWISE, THE CHANCE OF NEEDING ANY WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES IS LOWER AS WELL. (LESS THAN 10%). IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE WV RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR/SKC PREVAILS FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
FRESHEN UP TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LIKELY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT. LATE
TONIGHT, A WEAK WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH AND WILL
INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE AND A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANIES IT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES JUST OFF THE SURFACE APPEAR TO GO MORE
ISOTHERMAL THAN TRULY DECOUPLED AS THE FEATURE PASSES, SO DON'T
EXPECT THAT SURFACE WIND WILL BE CALM, BUT DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH
MIXING DOWN OF THE LLJ, SO A SUSTAINED 5-8 KNOT WIND APPEARS
MORE LIKELY BENEATH THE JET. LLWS INTENSITY IS HIGHEST FOR
FKL/DUJ WHERE THE CORE OF THE JET IS STRONGEST, AND HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT MGW, BUT HAVE INCLUDED A VERY BRIEF
MENTION THERE AS WELL.
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY REMAIN DRY AS WELL WITH 5-10 KNOT
WIND BACKING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. VFR REMAINS HIGH PROBABILITY
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER PASSING WAVE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACCOMPANYING A CROSSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SNOW ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...88
AVIATION...MLB
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