144
FXUS61 KPBZ 272312
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
612 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT OPENS THE DOOR TO HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALBERTA CLIPPER EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) PROBABILITIES DECREASING FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS MONDAY
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO REACH EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH AMOUNTS, NOW SHOWING A 15% TO 25%
CHANCE OF AN INCH NORTH OF PGH, AND A 5% TO 15% CHANCE OF TWO
INCHES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER. WHILE MODELS STILL AGREE A SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE AREA MONDAY, THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. LIKEWISE, THE CHANCE OF NEEDING ANY WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES IS LOWER AS WELL. (LESS THAN 10%). IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE WV RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR IS FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
NARROW WINDOW FEATURING MVFR POTENTIAL (30-60% PROBABILITY BASED
ON HI-RES MODELING) AND LOW PROBABILITY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
(HIGHLY LIKELY ONLY SEEN AT FKL/DUJ) SATURDAY MORNING. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SUPPORT A SHIFT FROM BREEZIER S/SW WINDS TO W/NW
THAT MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO DEEPER
MIXING AMID STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FAVORING AN AXIS FROM ZZV
THROUGH PIT AND INTO DUJ DEVELOPS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
(ROUGHLY 07Z-12Z) AS 2KFT WINDS RANGE FROM 40-50KTS AND BEGIN
VEERING ~30 DEGREES FROM THE SURFACE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING SOUTH
OF THE REGION (AND THUS DELAYING NEXT RESTRICTION PERIOD) BUT AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FAVORS ADDITIONAL RESTRICTION/PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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