871
FXUS61 KPBZ 280510
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT OPENS THE DOOR TO HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALBERTA CLIPPER EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) PROBABILITIES DECREASING FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS MONDAY
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO REACH EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH AMOUNTS, NOW SHOWING A 15% TO 25%
CHANCE OF AN INCH NORTH OF PGH, AND A 5% TO 15% CHANCE OF TWO
INCHES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER. WHILE MODELS STILL AGREE A SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE AREA MONDAY, THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. LIKEWISE, THE CHANCE OF NEEDING ANY WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES IS LOWER AS WELL. (LESS THAN 10%). IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, ANYTHING MORE THAN AN INCH WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE WV RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN LLWS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SW WIND
AT 2KFT AROUND 40KT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES AT FKL AND DUJ, THOUGH CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH.
THE LLWS SHOULD END BY 14Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET EXITS. FROPA
WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THAT TIME, WITH LOW VFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT FKL AND DUJ. ELSEWHERE PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE CIGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE S TO THE WNW AFTER FROPA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE. VFR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTION AND A WINTRY MIX
POTENTIAL RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...88
AVIATION...WM
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