196
FXUS61 KPBZ 281851
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE IS ALSO A FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) FREEZING RAIN A POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY
SOUTH OF PGH) OVERNIGHT, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
PROBABILITIES, DOWN TO UNDER 20%. EVEN THEN, IF THERE IS A BIT
OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND SEE THE ONLY REAL
POTENTIAL IMPACT BEING SOME POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS ON
OVERPASSES/BRIDGES. WITH THAT, NO PLANS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME, AND WILL JUST NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF
I-70 AND TRACK INTO WV AND VA. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL SNOW
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT A SECOND WAVE WILL
FOLLOW IN BEHIND AND LIFT NORTH A BIT AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS
WILL BRING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH
THE TRACK AS THE NBM PROVIDES A 40% TO 50% PROB OF EXCEEDING A
0.01 OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BETTER CHANCE AT THIS POINT SEEMS TO
BE EAST OF THE LAURELS. THIS THREAT HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE
HWO AND WILL NEED MONITORED FOR SHIFTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW ALONG
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE (50%-60%)
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT. THIS IS WHEN
THE WIND WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST,
STARTING MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AREA WIDE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTION AND A WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL RETURNS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...LUPO
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