850
FXUS61 KPBZ 010005
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE IS ALSO A FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) FREEZING RAIN A POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN (MAINLY
SOUTH OF PGH) OVERNIGHT, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
PROBABILITIES, DOWN TO UNDER 20%. EVEN THEN, IF THERE IS A BIT
OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THE ONLY REAL POTENTIAL
IMPACT BEING SOME POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS ON OVERPASSES/BRIDGES.
WITH THAT, NO PLANS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, AND WILL JUST
NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF
I-70 AND TRACK INTO WV AND VA. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL SNOW
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT A SECOND WAVE WILL
FOLLOW IN BEHIND AND LIFT NORTH A BIT AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS
WILL BRING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH
THE TRACK AS THE NBM PROVIDES A 40% TO 50% PROB OF EXCEEDING A
0.01 OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BETTER CHANCE AT THIS POINT SEEMS TO
BE EAST OF THE LAURELS. THIS THREAT HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE
HWO AND WILL NEED MONITORED FOR SHIFTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION WILL FAVOR A ROUGHLY 6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FEATURING MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 04Z-14Z.
NORTHERN TERMINALS (FKL/DUJ) EXPERIENCING QUICKER ARRIVAL OF
COLDER AIR ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR ALL SNOW; TERMINALS LIKE
HLG/PIT/BVI/AGC/LBE EXPERIENCE SLIGHT COLD AIR DELAYS MEANING
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE SNOW TRANSITION (WITH A NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF SLEET); SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIKE ZZV/MGW
PRIMARILY EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH ANY SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT THE
TAIL END.
PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL BE A VERY HOURS BEFORE
CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ARRIVAL. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE STRONGLY FAVOR VFR VIA
SCATTERING OF MVFR DECKS BETWEEN 13Z-16Z WITH SOME BROKEN
STRATOCU LINGERING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WHILE INCREASING AREA
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN, BUT PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX CAN'T BE
RULED OUT).
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FEATURE ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AS THE REGION SITS JUST NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE END WEEK PERIODS LIKELY HAVE ADDITIONAL RAIN (AND
THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WITH A CONTINUATION OF RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL PENDING TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE MOVEMENT/POSITIONING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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