697
FXUS61 KPBZ 011923
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
223 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT IS STILL VERY
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT / EARLY TUESDAY
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND/OR
SEVERE WEATHER BY WEEKS END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE NIGHT AS WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL
SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT LOCATIONS ROUGHLY PITTSBURGH AND NORTH
AS WELL AS THE RIDGES MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES MAY HANG ON
SLIGHTLY LONGER, UNTIL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS A TENTH OR LESS OF ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND ALONG THE RIDGES. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 40-50% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS (0.01" OR
MORE), DECREASING TO AROUND 15% FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15". THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED A HWO MENTION FOR
NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO PUT OUT AN ADVISORY SOON DEPENDING ON MODEL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION, AND A PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE FETCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETUP OVER THE SE CONUS.
THIS WILL POSE A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT AS WELL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST 7 DAY WPC QPF TOTALS SHOW BETWEEN 2.5" AND 3" OF
ACCUMULATED QPF BY NEXT SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN. 5 DAY TOTALS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.25" ACROSS THE REGION. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS WET
PATTERN AND ALSO THE LATE WEEK SEVERE THREAT.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS 578DM BY FRIDAY SO
RECORD HIGHS AND OR HIGH MINS COULD BE CHALLENGED. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT KPIT RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS VFR CLEAR SKY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
INCREASES MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
THAT WAVE SHOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
A LOW PROBABILITY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE PRODUCING A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX TYPE AS FAR NORTH OF MGW DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. PENDING SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK, A LAYER OF MVFR COULD SNEAK INTO MGW AS WELL, WITH AREAS
NORTH POTENTIALLY SEEING A BROKEN DECK BELOW 5KFT.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM NEAR PIT SOUTH WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN, NORTH OF PIT AND IN THE RIDGES. PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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