946
FXUS61 KPBZ 020509
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1209 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES FOR THE (LOW-END) POSSIBILITY FOR A NARROW
BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
WV.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN WV MONDAY MORNING
2) FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT / EARLY TUESDAY
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND/OR
SEVERE WEATHER BY WEEKS END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN OH INTO WV EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH A CROSSING WAVE. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA AS SNOWFALL REMAINS LIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
WV AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR SOUTHERN PA. UP TO A LOCALIZED 1-2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LATEST CAMS HAVE INDICATED LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR A VERY
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WV. IF
THIS BAND DOES DEVELOP AND IS FARTHER NORTH (E.G. ACROSS THE
I-68 CORRIDOR), IT MAY DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN THE 9AM
TO NOON TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD CREATE SLICK ROADS AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR A SMALL AREA. PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW
AND AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEADLINES, BUT IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING, GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDES A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF REGION
WILL SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT LOCATIONS ROUGHLY PITTSBURGH AND
NORTH AS WELL AS THE RIDGES MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO RAIN BY MID- MORNING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES MAY HANG ON
SLIGHTLY LONGER, UNTIL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS A TENTH OR LESS OF ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND ALONG THE RIDGES. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 40-50% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS (0.01" OR
MORE), DECREASING TO AROUND 15% FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15". THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED A HWO MENTION FOR
NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO PUT OUT AN ADVISORY SOON DEPENDING ON MODEL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION, AND A PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE FETCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETUP OVER THE SE CONUS.
THIS WILL POSE A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT AS WELL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST 7 DAY WPC QPF TOTALS SHOW BETWEEN 2.5" AND 3" OF
ACCUMULATED QPF BY NEXT SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN. 5 DAY TOTALS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.25" ACROSS THE REGION. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS WET
PATTERN AND ALSO THE LATE WEEK SEVERE THREAT.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS 578DM BY FRIDAY SO
RECORD HIGHS AND OR HIGH MINS COULD BE CHALLENGED. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT KPIT RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS
MORNING, SPREADING MVFR AND SNOW ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM ZZV TO
MGW. SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER
SNOW AT MGW AROUND MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ZZV AND MGW WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF A PHD-PIT-LBE LINE.
INCLUDED MAINLY RAIN AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR AIRPORTS
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES RISE AS THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES PIT WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT PIT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH PHD-PIT-LBE. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BVI, FKL AND DUJ BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
STALLS AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...WM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page