999
FXUS61 KPBZ 021910
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDED COUNTIES NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER BY WEEKS END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDING A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL SEE RAIN, BUT LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY PITTSBURGH AND NORTH AS WELL AS THE RIDGES WILL SEE FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOP WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING AT ONSET. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED
TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TUCKER
AND PRESTON COUNTIES MAY HANG ON SLIGHTLY LONGER, UNTIL WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDED COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS A TENTH OR LESS OF ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND ALONG THE RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION, AND A PERSISTENT GULF MOISTURE FETCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETUP OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL POSE A POSSIBLE FLOODING
THREAT AS WELL THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN
THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST 7 DAY WPC QPF TOTALS SHOW BETWEEN 2.5" AND 3" OF
ACCUMULATED QPF BY NEXT SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN. 5 DAY TOTALS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.25" ACROSS THE REGION. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS WET
PATTERN AND ALSO THE LATE WEEK SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS 578DM BY FRIDAY SO
RECORD HIGHS AND OR HIGH MINS COULD BE CHALLENGED. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT KPIT RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF A PHD-
PIT-LBE LINE. INCLUDED MAINLY RAIN AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAST TEMPERATURES RISE AS THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES PIT WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT PIT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH PHD-PIT-LBE.
OUTLOOK...
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BVI, FKL AND DUJ
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
STALLS AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-022-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...WM/88/LUPO
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