440
FXUS61 KPBZ 022032
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
332 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDED COUNTIES NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES IN LOW PROBABILITY FREEZING
RAIN IMPACT FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING PITTSBURGH METRO THAT WILL
REQUIRE OBSERVATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER BY WEEKS END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDING A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL SEE RAIN, BUT LOCATIONS
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, AS WELL AS THE RIDGES, WILL SEE FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOP WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING AT ONSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THOSE AREAS TODAY,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THERE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING WHILE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION PROVIDES A PROFILE
SUITABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. THERE LIES SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY
FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING PITTSBURGH METRO WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT AT PRECIPITATION ONSET OVERNIGHT. NBM SUGGESTS LOW
PROBABILITY IMPACTS THERE, BUT IT IS RUNNING WARM AND MOIST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LENDS HIGHER CONCERN ABOUT A FARTHER
SOUTH FOOTPRINT OF FREEZING RAIN. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE MOST ALWAYS RESULTS IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAN
MOST MODELS SUGGEST, SO THE T/TD SPREAD MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH THAT
WITH WET-BULBING, AIR TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO BE RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING, SO ANY IMPACTS MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO BRIDGES,
OVERPASSES, AND ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR THAT OUTCOME TO COME TO
FRUITION, WE'D NEED DEW POINTS TO TREND ALONG WITH HREF 25TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN THIS AFTERNOON, SO
OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING FOR
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF HEADLINES.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES MAY
HANG ON SLIGHTLY LONGER, UNTIL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDED COUNTIES
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS A TENTH OR LESS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND ALONG THE RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION, AND A PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE FETCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETUP OVER THE SE CONUS.
THIS WILL POSE A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT AS WELL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST 7 DAY WPC QPF TOTALS SHOW BETWEEN 2.5" AND 3" OF
ACCUMULATED QPF BY NEXT SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN. 5 DAY TOTALS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.25" ACROSS THE REGION. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS WET
PATTERN AND ALSO THE LATE WEEK SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS 578DM BY FRIDAY SO
RECORD HIGHS AND OR HIGH MINS COULD BE CHALLENGED. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT KPIT RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF A PHD-
PIT-LBE LINE. INCLUDED MAINLY RAIN AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAST TEMPERATURES RISE AS THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES PIT WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT PIT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH PHD-PIT-LBE.
OUTLOOK...
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BVI, FKL AND DUJ
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
STALLS AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-022-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...MLB/SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...WM/88/LUPO
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