505
FXUS61 KPBZ 030600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN THIS MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN
2) PERIODIC WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AS MOISTURE AND OVERRUNNING ASCENT INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGIN TO RISE JUST
AHEAD OF THE PRECIP, AND CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AS IS. THERE COULD STILL BE A
POCKET OF BRIEF FREEZING RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY, SO A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
EXPECTING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
BEFORE TEMPERATURE CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME JET ENHANCED
ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT FROM N-S AS THE FRONT SINKS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE EVENING WAVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT, WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS INDICATE ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS BY LATE
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH ACTION STAGE. WILL MONITOR HOW
QPF EVOLVES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE LONG DURATION EVENT.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT TO THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO SATURDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALSO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BELOW- FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT ONSET, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT
AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM MID/LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET FOR
PIT/AGC/BVI/HLG, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF AT THESE TERMINALS BEFORE
CONDITIONS WARM.
CIGS WILL LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH EVENTUAL
MVFR/IFR BY MORNING. SOME BRIEF LIFTING SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF
PIT NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE IFR RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY EVENING.
RAIN MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BY 18Z. IT SHOULD THEN TAPER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE
MASON- DIXON. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-022-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
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